Texas vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsOSU
- Q4 3:28TEXParker Livingstone 32 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q4 13:08OSUCarnell Tate 40 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–14
- Q2 8:57OSUCJ Donaldson Jr 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassArch Manning 17/30, 170 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 16 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecJack Endries 4 REC, 50 YDS
- PassJulian Sayin 13/20, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCJ Donaldson 19 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCarnell Tate 2 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:57OSU +17%
CJ Donaldson Jr 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)
- Q4 13:08OSU +9%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 40 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q4 15:00OSU +9%
Donaldson Jr,CJ rush right for 5 yards gain to the TEX38 (Hill Jr.,Anthony) PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TEX43 to TEX48. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:28TEX +6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 32 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q4 2:26OSU +6%
Joe McGuire punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 15
- Q3 6:40OSU +5%
Sayin,Julian rush right for 0 yards to the OSU02, out of bounds at OSU02 PENALTY OSU Holding offsetting TEX UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Ohio State?
Texas 7, Ohio State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| TEX | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total yards | 203 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 126 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 16 | First downs | 11 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 17/30 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 27:55 | Possession | 32:05 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:35 TEX punt on 4th & 2 at OSU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:28TEXParker Livingstone 32 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q4 13:08OSUCarnell Tate 40 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–14
- Q2 8:57OSUCJ Donaldson Jr 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1974, TEX Elo 1861 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -6.9 (69% to win) — 4.9 points clear of OSU's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TEX | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#28) | CORE overall | +39.2 (#1) |
| +5 / -9 | offense / defense | +14 / -26 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 3.43 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 1.15 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →