| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| OSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 1974, TEX Elo 1861) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -6.9 (70% to win) — 4.9 points of value on OSU versus the market line of -2.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TEX ahead, below = OSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
OSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas 7, Ohio State 14.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 32 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
Arch Manning run for no gain to the OSU 1
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker Livingstone
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