| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 2 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 43 |
| UTSA | 0 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 36 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTSA Elo 1503, TXST Elo 1623) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTSA +2.4 (43% to win) — 6.9 points of value on TXST versus the market line of -4.5.
TXST up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas State 43, UTSA 36.
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Robert Henry Jr. 75 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)
Beau Sparks 65 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)
A'Marion Peterson run for no gain to the TXST 1
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