| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
| ASU | 3 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 34 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1688, TXST Elo 1627) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -4.8 (64% to win) — 13.7 points of value on TXST versus the market line of -18.5.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TXST ahead, below = ASU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ASU rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. ASU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge TXST.
- ASU pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. TXST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TXST.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ASU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Arizona State?
Texas State 15, Arizona State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.