Texas State vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsASU
- Q4 5:26TXSTKylen Evans 3 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–34
- Q3 2:17ASURaleek Brown 75 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)9–34
- Q3 2:29TXSTBrad Jackson 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–27
- Q3 8:35ASUChamon Metayer 27 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–27
- Q2 2:44ASUJesus Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 10:22ASUSam Leavitt 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–17
- Q2 12:47ASUJordyn Tyson 30 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–10
- Q1 2:16TXSTTyler Robles 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:40ASUJesus Gomez 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBrad Jackson 25/36, 184 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLincoln Pare 13 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecBeau Sparks 10 REC, 70 YDS
- PassSam Leavitt 15/25, 188 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRaleek Brown 12 CAR, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordyn Tyson 6 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:47ASU +18%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 30 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q2 10:22ASU +12%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q1 2:16TXST +8%
Tyler Robles 39 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 6:40ASU +7%
Jesus Gomez 47 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Arizona State?
Texas State 15, Arizona State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
| TXST | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 303 | Total yards | 433 |
| 184 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 245 |
| 21 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 4-6 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 25/36 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 29:17 | Possession | 30:43 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:19 TXST go for it on 4th & 11 at TXST 48. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:26TXSTKylen Evans 3 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–34
- Q3 2:17ASURaleek Brown 75 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)9–34
- Q3 2:29TXSTBrad Jackson 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–27
- Q3 8:35ASUChamon Metayer 27 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–27
- Q2 2:44ASUJesus Gomez 26 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 10:22ASUSam Leavitt 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–17
- Q2 12:47ASUJordyn Tyson 30 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–10
- Q1 2:16TXSTTyler Robles 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:40ASUJesus Gomez 47 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1688, TXST Elo 1627 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -4.8 (64% to win) — 13.7 points clear of TXST's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.4 (#41) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#44) |
| +12 / +3 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
| 3.21 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →