Sun, Sep 14, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
| ASU | 3 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1688, TXST Elo 1627) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -4.8 (64% to win) — 13.7 points of value on TXST versus the market line of -18.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TXST ahead, below = ASU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
ASU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas State 15, Arizona State 34.
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Raleek Brown run for 75 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 16 fumbled, recovered by ASU C.J. Fite
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 13 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST down
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