| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TA&M | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| TEX | 0 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1880, TA&M Elo 1896) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -1.8 (55% to win) — 4.3 points of value on TEX versus the market line of +2.5.
TEX up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas A&M 17, Texas 27.
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #88 J.Endries caught at TAM38, for 54 yards to the TAM02 (#25 D.Brooks), 1ST DOWN
End of 3rd quarter.
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 M.Reed pass intercepted by #16 M.Taaffe at TEX03 QB hurried by #15 J.Terry, End Of Play
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