Texas A&M vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TA&MTeam statsTEX
- Q4 7:04TEXArch Manning 35 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)17–27
- Q4 9:15TA&MEJ Smith 13 Yd Run (Jared Zirkel Kick)17–20
- Q4 14:57TEXNick Townsend 2 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)10–20
- Q3 7:12TEXRyan Wingo 29 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)10–13
- Q3 11:56TEXMason Shipley 46 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 0:56TA&MKC Concepcion 8 Yd Run (Jared Zirkel Kick)10–3
- Q2 6:41TA&MJared Zirkel 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 12:04TEXMason Shipley 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEX played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.1
- TEX lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassMarcel Reed 20/32, 180 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMarcel Reed 12 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecKC Concepcion 5 REC, 57 YDS
- PassArch Manning 14/29, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 19 CAR, 155 YDS
- RecJack Endries 4 REC, 93 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:15TA&M +30%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Smith rush middle for 13 yards gain to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 7:12TEX +28%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete deep middle to #1 R.Wingo caught at TAM00, for 29 yards to the TAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:56TA&M +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Concepcion rush left for 8 yards gain to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 14:57TEX +21%
No Huddle #81 N.Townsend rush left for 2 yards gain to the TAM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 7:04TEX +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning rush middle for 35 yards gain to the TAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:23TEX +17%
PENALTY TAM Offside (#9 C.Howell) 5 yards from TAM40 to TAM35. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas A&M vs. Texas?
Texas A&M 17, Texas 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| TA&M | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 397 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 157 | Rushing yards | 218 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 14/31 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-62 | Penalties | 7-78 |
| 32:15 | Possession | 27:45 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:16 TA&M punt on 4th & 2 at TA&M 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:04TEXArch Manning 35 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)17–27
- Q4 9:15TA&MEJ Smith 13 Yd Run (Jared Zirkel Kick)17–20
- Q4 14:57TEXNick Townsend 2 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)10–20
- Q3 7:12TEXRyan Wingo 29 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)10–13
- Q3 11:56TEXMason Shipley 46 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 0:56TA&MKC Concepcion 8 Yd Run (Jared Zirkel Kick)10–3
- Q2 6:41TA&MJared Zirkel 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 12:04TEXMason Shipley 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1880, TA&M Elo 1896 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -1.8 (56% to win) — 4.3 points clear of TEX's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#84 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #102 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #24 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Texas leads 71–37–5 · Texas has won 3 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| TA&M | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.7 (#9) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| +12 / -11 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →