Notre Dame StadiumClosing line: ND -7 · TA&M covered
Sat, Sep 13, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TA&M | 7 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 41 |
| ND | 14 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2166, TA&M Elo 1724) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -20.1 (93% to win) — 13.1 points of value on ND versus the market line of -7.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas A&M 41, Notre Dame 40.
No — the model picked ND, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ND pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 86 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
Marcel Reed pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 11 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 21 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down
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