Texas A&M vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TA&MTeam statsLSU
- Q4 0:59LSUKyle Parker 12 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)49–25
- Q4 6:12TA&MJamarion Morrow 11 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)49–18
- Q4 14:15TA&MNate Boerkircher 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)42–18
- Q3 4:02TA&MJamarion Morrow 24 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)35–18
- Q3 8:47TA&MKC Concepcion 79 Yd Punt Return (Randy Bond Kick)28–18
- Q3 10:41TA&MMarcel Reed 5 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)21–18
- Q2 0:20LSUDamian Ramos 30 Yd Field Goal 14–18
- Q2 3:09LSUHarlem Berry 7 Yd Run (Damian Ramos PAT failed)14–15
- Q2 12:13LSUT. White punt blocked by J. Thomas. Out of bounds for Safety14–9
- Q1 0:40TA&MKC Concepcion 15 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:38LSUTrey'Dez Green 5 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:10TA&MMarcel Reed 41 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 6.6
- PassMarcel Reed 12/21, 202 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushMarcel Reed 13 CAR, 108 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAshton Bethel-Roman 1 REC, 47 YDS
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 22/35, 168 YDS, 1 TD
- RushHarlem Berry 9 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBarion Brown 4 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:51TA&M +58%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 23
- Q1 0:40LSU +31%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 15 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
- Q3 10:41TA&M +26%
Marcel Reed run for 5 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
- Q2 3:09LSU +23%
Harlem Berry run for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos PAT MISSED)
- Q4 5:57LSU +22%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by T.J. Searcy for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22
- Q4 0:00TA&M +20%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 22
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas A&M vs. LSU?
Texas A&M 49, LSU 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TA&M | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 278 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 224 | Rushing yards | 60 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 12/21 | Comp/Att | 25/39 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 4-27 |
| 30:12 | Possession | 29:48 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:29 TA&M punt on 4th & 2 at TA&M 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:59LSUKyle Parker 12 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)49–25
- Q4 6:12TA&MJamarion Morrow 11 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)49–18
- Q4 14:15TA&MNate Boerkircher 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)42–18
- Q3 4:02TA&MJamarion Morrow 24 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)35–18
- Q3 8:47TA&MKC Concepcion 79 Yd Punt Return (Randy Bond Kick)28–18
- Q3 10:41TA&MMarcel Reed 5 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)21–18
- Q2 0:20LSUDamian Ramos 30 Yd Field Goal 14–18
- Q2 3:09LSUHarlem Berry 7 Yd Run (Damian Ramos PAT failed)14–15
- Q2 12:13LSUT. White punt blocked by J. Thomas. Out of bounds for Safety14–9
- Q1 0:40TA&MKC Concepcion 15 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:38LSUTrey'Dez Green 5 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:10TA&MMarcel Reed 41 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1752, TA&M Elo 1801 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -0.4 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 36–24–3 · Texas A&M has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| TA&M | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.7 (#9) | CORE overall | +8.1 (#45) |
| +12 / -11 | offense / defense | -3 / -11 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →