Texas A&M
SEC· Elo 1801
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TA&M | 14 | 0 | 21 | 14 | 49 |
| LSU | 7 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 25 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LSU Elo 1752, TA&M Elo 1801) plus home-field advantage. That projects LSU -0.4 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TA&M up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas A&M 49, LSU 25.
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had LSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Marcel Reed pass intercepted A.J. Haulcy return for 25 yds to the LSU 25
Marcel Reed run for 41 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
Marcel Reed pass complete to Ashton Bethel-Roman for 47 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST down
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