Texas A&M vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TA&MTeam statsARK
- Q4 0:10ARKCJ Brown 4 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)45–42
- Q4 6:52TA&MRueben Owens II 12 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)45–35
- Q4 11:30ARKJaden Platt 4 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Taylen Green Pass to Rohan Jones for Two-Point Conversion)38–35
- Q3 0:25TA&MRueben Owens II 14 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)38–27
- Q3 4:28ARKTaylen Green 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)31–27
- Q3 7:45TA&MRandy Bond 29 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 13:34TA&MKC Concepcion 17 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)28–20
- Q2 0:02ARKO'Mega Blake 7 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–20
- Q2 1:51ARKTaylen Green 27 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–13
- Q2 3:32TA&MNate Boerkircher 1 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)21–6
- Q2 11:17ARKScott Starzyk 22 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 14:49TA&MMarcel Reed 3 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:06TA&MAshton Bethel-Roman 24 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:21ARKScott Starzyk 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassMarcel Reed 23/32, 280 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRueben Owens II 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAshton Bethel-Roman 4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTaylen Green 19/32, 256 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMike Washington Jr. 16 CAR, 147 YDS
- RecO'Mega Blake 7 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:30ARK +28%
Jaden Platt 4 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Taylen Green Pass to Rohan Jones for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 0:00TA&M +27%
Kneel down by Texas A&M at ARK41 for loss of 2 yards
- Q4 1:47ARK +23%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rohan Jones for 18 yds to the TA&M 28 for a 1ST down
- Q2 0:02ARK +21%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 7 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q3 4:28ARK +20%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q3 13:34TA&M +19%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 17 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas A&M vs. Arkansas?
Texas A&M 45, Arkansas 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
| TA&M | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 497 | Total yards | 527 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 268 |
| 29 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/32 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 8.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-67 | Penalties | 9-71 |
| 33:48 | Possession | 26:12 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:17 ARK field goal on 4th & 4 at TA&M 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:10ARKCJ Brown 4 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)45–42
- Q4 6:52TA&MRueben Owens II 12 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)45–35
- Q4 11:30ARKJaden Platt 4 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Taylen Green Pass to Rohan Jones for Two-Point Conversion)38–35
- Q3 0:25TA&MRueben Owens II 14 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)38–27
- Q3 4:28ARKTaylen Green 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)31–27
- Q3 7:45TA&MRandy Bond 29 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 13:34TA&MKC Concepcion 17 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)28–20
- Q2 0:02ARKO'Mega Blake 7 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–20
- Q2 1:51ARKTaylen Green 27 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–13
- Q2 3:32TA&MNate Boerkircher 1 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)21–6
- Q2 11:17ARKScott Starzyk 22 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 14:49TA&MMarcel Reed 3 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:06TA&MAshton Bethel-Roman 24 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:21ARKScott Starzyk 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1610, TA&M Elo 1808 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +5.5 (37% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas leads 42–37–3 · Texas A&M has won 4 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| TA&M | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.7 (#9) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#37) |
| +12 / -11 | offense / defense | +20 / +9 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 1.67 | allowed / drive | 3.48 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →