| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TA&M | 7 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 45 |
| ARK | 3 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARK Elo 1610, TA&M Elo 1808) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARK +5.5 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TA&M ahead, below = ARK ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TA&M up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas A&M 45, Arkansas 42.
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 36 yds to the TA&M 15 for a 1ST down
Taylen Green run for 49 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST down
Mike Washington Jr. run for 57 yds to the TA&M 7 for a 1ST down
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