Tennessee vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsILL
- Q4 0:03ILLDavid Olano 29 Yd Field Goal 28–30
- Q4 4:58TENNJoakim Dodson 94 Yd Kickoff Return (Max Gilbert Kick)28–27
- Q4 5:14ILLDavid Olano 28 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q4 11:40TENNDeSean Bishop 12 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)21–24
- Q3 2:41ILLLuke Altmyer 2 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)14–24
- Q3 7:31TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–17
- Q3 11:48ILLLeon Lowery Jr. 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (David Olano Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:21ILLDavid Olano 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:36ILLJustin Bowick 18 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:16TENNJoey Aguilar 7 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TENN ahead, below = ILL ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJoey Aguilar 14/18, 121 YDS
- RushDeSean Bishop 19 CAR, 93 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMike Matthews 3 REC, 43 YDS
- PassLuke Altmyer 20/33, 196 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAidan Laughery 13 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecHudson Clement 3 REC, 48 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Illinois?
Tennessee 28, Illinois 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TENN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 278 | Total yards | 417 |
| 121 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 157 | Rushing yards | 221 |
| 18 | First downs | 27 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 14/18 | Comp/Att | 20/34 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-46 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 24:14 | Possession | 35:46 |
- Q4 0:03ILLDavid Olano 29 Yd Field Goal 28–30
- Q4 4:58TENNJoakim Dodson 94 Yd Kickoff Return (Max Gilbert Kick)28–27
- Q4 5:14ILLDavid Olano 28 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q4 11:40TENNDeSean Bishop 12 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)21–24
- Q3 2:41ILLLuke Altmyer 2 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)14–24
- Q3 7:31TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–17
- Q3 11:48ILLLeon Lowery Jr. 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (David Olano Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:21ILLDavid Olano 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:36ILLJustin Bowick 18 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:16TENNJoey Aguilar 7 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1583, TENN Elo 1799 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ILL +8.6 (29% to win) — 5.6 points clear of TENN's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TENN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#26) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#36) |
| +16 / +1 | offense / defense | +10 / -1 |
| 3.27 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →