Tennessee vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Tue, Dec 30, 10:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| ILL | 7 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 30 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (ILL Elo 1583, TENN Elo 1799) on a neutral field. That projects ILL +8.6 (26% to win) — 5.6 points of value on TENN versus the market line of +3.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: TENN · 12 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- TENN rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. ILL rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge TENN.
- ILL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. TENN pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge ILL.
- TENN pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge TENN.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ILL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Illinois?
Tennessee 28, Illinois 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
I had TENN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.