Temple
American Athletic· Elo 1330
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEM | 7 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 38 |
| TLSA | 3 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TLSA Elo 1055, TEM Elo 1330) plus home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +8.6 (26% to win) — 4.1 points of value on TEM versus the market line of +4.5.
TEM up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Temple 38, Tulsa 37.
Yes — the model's pick (TEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 3rd quarter.
(05:20) Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush left for 72 yards gain to the Tulsa03 (#21 S.Smith; #7 E.Green), 1ST DOWN
(01:58) Shotgun #6 E.Simon rush right for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa01 (#0 R.Coney; #16 D.Robinson), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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