Temple vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEMTeam statsTLSA
- OT 0:00TLSABrody Foley 9 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–37
- OT 0:00TEMKajiya Hollawayne 1 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)38–31
- Q4 3:44TLSADominic Richardson 1 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)31–31
- Q4 6:05TEMCarl Hardin 52 Yd Field Goal 31–24
- Q3 4:13TEMKajiya Hollawayne 6 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)28–24
- Q3 7:28TLSAGrayson Tempest 5 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)21–24
- Q3 12:28TEMJay Ducker 13 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:03TLSABrody Foley 8 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–17
- Q2 5:20TLSABrody Foley 5 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:12TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:02TEMKajiya Hollawayne 24 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:32TLSASeth Morgan 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassEvan Simon 24/35, 267 YDS, 5 TD
- RushHunter Smith 10 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecKajiya Hollawayne 10 REC, 85 YDS, 3 TD
- PassBaylor Hayes 19/31, 296 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDominic Richardson 19 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Smith 4 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:27TLSA +72%
Kneel down by Tulsa at Tulsa19 for loss of 1 yard
- Q4 3:44TLSA +53%
#21 D.Richardson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Temple00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:27TEM +48%
#7 D.Atton punt 29 yards to the Tulsa20, out of bounds at Tulsa20
- OT 0:00TEM +44%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #1 C.Chase caught at Tulsa06, for 24 yards to the Tulsa01 (#7 E.Green), 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:13TEM +33%
Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short left to #11 K.Hollawayne caught at Tulsa00, for 6 yards to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:28TLSA +32%
Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #19 G.Tempest caught at Temple00, for 5 yards to the Temple00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Temple vs. Tulsa?
Temple 38, Tulsa 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEM) was correct.
| TEM | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 447 | Total yards | 436 |
| 267 | Passing yards | 296 |
| 180 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 22 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 24/35 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-87 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 31:48 | Possession | 28:12 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:47 TLSA punt on 4th & 11 at TEM 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00TLSABrody Foley 9 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–37
- OT 0:00TEMKajiya Hollawayne 1 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)38–31
- Q4 3:44TLSADominic Richardson 1 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)31–31
- Q4 6:05TEMCarl Hardin 52 Yd Field Goal 31–24
- Q3 4:13TEMKajiya Hollawayne 6 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)28–24
- Q3 7:28TLSAGrayson Tempest 5 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)21–24
- Q3 12:28TEMJay Ducker 13 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:03TLSABrody Foley 8 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)14–17
- Q2 5:20TLSABrody Foley 5 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:12TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:02TEMKajiya Hollawayne 24 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:32TLSASeth Morgan 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1055, TEM Elo 1330 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +8.6 (29% to win) — 4.1 points clear of TEM's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 5–5 · Temple has won 2 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| TEM | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#100) | CORE overall | -8.2 (#90) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | -8 / +0 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 3.17 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →