TCU vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsWVU
- Q4 3:15WVUJeff Weimer 28 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)23–17
- Q4 4:48TCUNate McCashland 41 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 1:20WVUKade Hensley 28 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 0:59TCUNate McCashland 22 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 6:12TCUEric McAlister 4 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:50WVUGrayson Barnes 17 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:31TCUTrent Battle 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:35TCUNate McCashland 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TCU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WVU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 5.6
- WVU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassJosh Hoover 24/39, 247 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTrent Battle 19 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEric McAlister 9 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- PassScotty Fox Jr. 28/41, 301 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDiore Hubbard 14 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecCam Vaughn 6 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:12TCU +11%
Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #1 E.McAlister caught at WVU00, for 4 yards to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:50WVU +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete short middle to #80 G.Barnes caught at TCU01, for 17 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 4:31TCU +8%
Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WVU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 3:15WVU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete deep right to #16 J.Weimer caught at TCU00, for 28 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 3:14TCU +7%
PENALTY TCU False Start (#81 C.Curtis) 5 yards from WVU44 to WVU49. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. West Virginia?
TCU 23, West Virginia 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
| TCU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 343 | Total yards | 342 |
| 247 | Passing yards | 301 |
| 96 | Rushing yards | 41 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-7 |
| 24/39 | Comp/Att | 28/41 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 1.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 4-36 |
| 34:03 | Possession | 25:57 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:43 WVU punt on 4th & 1 at WVU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:15WVUJeff Weimer 28 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)23–17
- Q4 4:48TCUNate McCashland 41 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 1:20WVUKade Hensley 28 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 0:59TCUNate McCashland 22 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 6:12TCUEric McAlister 4 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:50WVUGrayson Barnes 17 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:31TCUTrent Battle 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:35TCUNate McCashland 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1281, TCU Elo 1719 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU +15.1 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWest Virginia leads 8–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| TCU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.2 (#31) | CORE overall | -10.6 (#98) |
| +6 / -7 | offense / defense | -11 / -1 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.51 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →