| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 10 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 23 |
| WVU | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WVU Elo 1281, TCU Elo 1719) plus home-field advantage. That projects WVU +15.1 (13% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TCU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
TCU 23, West Virginia 17.
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TCU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 4th quarter.
End of 2nd quarter.
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 D.Hubbard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU21 (#21 B.Clark; #11 D.Deal), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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