TCU vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsKSU
- Q4 0:26TCUEric McAlister 37 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)28–41
- Q4 2:06KSULuis Rodriguez 36 Yd Field Goal 21–41
- Q4 4:34KSULuis Rodriguez 19 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 10:05TCUEric McAlister 85 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)21–35
- Q4 10:22KSUJerand Bradley 12 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–35
- Q3 2:06TCUChase Curtis 2 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–28
- Q3 3:57KSUGarrett Oakley 17 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–28
- Q3 10:28KSUDesmond Purnell 25 Yd Interception Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–21
- Q2 2:02KSUWesley Fair 0 Yd Fumble Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–14
- Q2 2:45KSUGarrett Oakley 32 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–7
- Q2 5:35TCUJeremy Payne 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJosh Hoover 26/47, 376 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushKevorian Barnes 12 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecEric McAlister 4 REC, 156 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAvery Johnson 16/26, 198 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJoe Jackson 27 CAR, 110 YDS
- RecGarrett Oakley 4 REC, 71 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:02KSU +23%
Ed Small run for a loss of 13 yards Ed Small fumbled, recovered by TCU Wesley Fair for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
- Q2 2:45KSU +22%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
- Q2 5:35TCU +21%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
- Q3 10:28KSU +18%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 25 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
- Q3 2:06TCU +6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 2 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
- Q3 11:09KSU +6%
Simon McClannan punt for 37 yds, Ed Small returns for no gain to the TCU 33
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. Kansas State?
TCU 28, Kansas State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TCU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 448 | Total yards | 343 |
| 376 | Passing yards | 198 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 26/47 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-59 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 23:41 | Possession | 36:19 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:34 KSU field goal on 4th & 1 at TCU 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26TCUEric McAlister 37 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)28–41
- Q4 2:06KSULuis Rodriguez 36 Yd Field Goal 21–41
- Q4 4:34KSULuis Rodriguez 19 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 10:05TCUEric McAlister 85 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)21–35
- Q4 10:22KSUJerand Bradley 12 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–35
- Q3 2:06TCUChase Curtis 2 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–28
- Q3 3:57KSUGarrett Oakley 17 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–28
- Q3 10:28KSUDesmond Purnell 25 Yd Interception Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–21
- Q2 2:02KSUWesley Fair 0 Yd Fumble Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–14
- Q2 2:45KSUGarrett Oakley 32 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–7
- Q2 5:35TCUJeremy Payne 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1662, TCU Elo 1751 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU +1.2 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesKansas State leads 11–8 · Kansas State has won 3 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| TCU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.2 (#31) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#49) |
| +6 / -7 | offense / defense | +3 / -4 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.09 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →