| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| KSU | 0 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KSU Elo 1662, TCU Elo 1751) plus home-field advantage. That projects KSU +1.2 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
KSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
TCU 28, Kansas State 41.
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TCU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 85 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 25 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
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