TCU
6-4·Big 12· Elo 1605
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
| HOU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HOU Elo 1476, TCU Elo 1605) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU +2.8 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
TCU 17, Houston 14.
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TCU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 54 yards gain to the TCU37 (#4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWN
(01:52) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass intercepted by #31 J.Simms at TCU00, Touchback
(01:53) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard loss to the HOU06 (#10 L.McCutchin), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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