TCU vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsHOU
- Q4 11:21TCUNate McCashland 29 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q3 5:34HOUDean Connors 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–14
- Q2 8:21HOUAmare Thomas 15 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:45TCUJordan Dwyer 17 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:20TCUEric McAlister 33 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJosh Hoover 24/33, 293 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJeremy Payne 18 CAR, 103 YDS
- RecJoseph Manjack IV 9 REC, 95 YDS
- PassConner Weigman 15/29, 161 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushConner Weigman 15 CAR, 114 YDS
- RecAmare Thomas 5 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:34HOU +27%
Dean Connors 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
- Q4 1:48HOU +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #80 J.Martin caught at HOU07, for 7 yards to the HOU13 (#1 A.Jordan; #22 J.Lester), out of bounds PENALTY TC…
- Q4 0:35TCU +21%
Kneel down by #10 J.Hoover at TCU18 for loss of 2 yards
- Q4 6:16TCU +18%
Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TCU38 (#12 S.Fotu)
- Q1 11:20TCU +17%
Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete deep right to #1 E.McAlister caught at HOU02, for 33 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 11:21TCU +15%
#99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. Houston?
TCU 17, Houston 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
| TCU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 391 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 161 |
| 133 | Rushing yards | 230 |
| 22 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 4-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/33 | Comp/Att | 15/29 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 3-32 |
| 27:32 | Possession | 32:28 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:04 HOU punt on 4th & 3 at HOU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:21TCUNate McCashland 29 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q3 5:34HOUDean Connors 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–14
- Q2 8:21HOUAmare Thomas 15 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:45TCUJordan Dwyer 17 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:20TCUEric McAlister 33 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1476, TCU Elo 1605 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU +2.8 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 14–14 · 39% have been one-possession games
| TCU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.2 (#31) | CORE overall | -0.9 (#65) |
| +6 / -7 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →