| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TARL | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 30 |
| ARMY | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 27 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TARL ahead, below = ARMY ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
ARMY up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tarleton State 30, Army 27.
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ARMY pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Dewayne Coleman pass intercepted Kasyus Kurns return for 40 yds to the TAR 41
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 35 yds to the TAR 41 for a 1ST down
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 21 yds to the TAR 37 for a 1ST down
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