Tarleton State vs. Army: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Tarleton State

▸0030

Army

0027

Final/2OT

Michie Stadium

	1	2	3	4	OT1	OT2	T
TARL	3	7	7	7	3	3	30
ARMY	7	10	7	0	3	0	27

TARLTeam statsARMY

344Total yards411

152Pass131

192Rush280

16First downs24

6-183rd down6-16

0Turnovers3

23:26Possession36:34

Scoring plays

• 2OT 0:00TARLBrad Larson 37 Yd Field Goal30–27
• OT 0:00ARMYDawson Jones 40 Yd Field Goal27–27
• OT 0:00TARLBrad Larson 28 Yd Field Goal27–24
• Q4 9:05TARLDawson Hearne 15 Yd pass from Victor Gabalis (Brad Larson Kick)24–24
• Q3 5:15TARLCaleb Lewis 6 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick)17–24
• Q3 8:14ARMYHayden Reed 37 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–24
• Q2 0:15ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–17
• Q2 1:47ARMYDawson Jones 24 Yd Field Goal 10–10
• Q2 9:43TARLTre Page III 10 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick)10–7
• Q1 4:08ARMYDewayne Coleman 26 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)3–7
• Q1 8:05TARLBrad Larson 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

ARMY −14

Against the number

TARL covered

line ARMY −14

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TARL aheadARMY ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TARL ahead, below = ARMY ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ARMY −14

Closing total

47.5

Model line

—

Actual result

TARL 30 – 27 ARMY

Leaders

Tarleton State

• PassVictor Gabalis 16/30, 152 YDS, 1 TD
• RushCaleb Lewis 20 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCody Jackson 6 REC, 53 YDS

Army

• PassDewayne Coleman 7/12, 129 YDS, 2 INT
• RushDewayne Coleman 24 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
• RecNoah Short 6 REC, 81 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

144

Points / snap

0.40

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARMY up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

ARMY went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24WGeorgia State vs Rhode Island42-35WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24WEastern Michigan vs Howard33-23LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17

Fourth downs

17 calls

ARMY gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.TARL 9/10 · ARMY 5/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Tarleton State vs. Army?

Tarleton State 30, Army 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TARL

ARMY

31%

Success rate

44%

0.18

EPA / pass

0.60

0.26

EPA / rush

-0.03

28%

Early-down success

43%

31%

Pass success

56%

31%

Rush success

40%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

45%

Pass rate

23%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.8

TARL

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

ARMY

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TARL		ARMY
344	Total yards	411
152	Passing yards	131
192	Rushing yards	280
16	First downs	24
6-18	3rd down	6-16
1-2	4th down	1-2
16/30	Comp/Att	8/16
5.1	Yards per pass	8.2
4.6	Yards per rush	4.2
0	Turnovers	3
9-73	Penalties	5-35
23:26	Possession	36:34

Fourth downs

17 calls

TARL

9/10 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

ARMY

5/7 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 10:03 TARL punt on 4th & 3 at TARL 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TARL 6/16 scoring drives← own end zone →ARMY 5/14 scoring drives

ARMYPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

TARLFG12 pl, 65 yds· own 22Q1

ARMYTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

TARLPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 22Q1

ARMYPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 27Q1

TARLTD12 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q2

ARMYFG15 pl, 67 yds· own 26Q2

TARLPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

ARMYTD5 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q2

TARLEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

TARLPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 16Q3

ARMYDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· own 38Q3

TARLDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· opp 43Q3

ARMYTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

TARLTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

ARMYINT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3

TARLPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 22Q3

ARMYINT6 pl, 38 yds· own 45Q4

TARLPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 41Q4

ARMYFUM1 pl, 4 yds· own 16Q4

TARLTD3 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q4

ARMYPUNT9 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q4

TARLPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 20Q4

ARMYPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 43Q4

TARLPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 30Q4

ARMYMISS7 pl, 42 yds· own 32Q4

TARLEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 26Q4

TARLFG8 pl, 14 yds· opp 25OT

ARMYMISS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 25OT

TARLFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 25OT

Scoring plays

• 2OT 0:00TARLBrad Larson 37 Yd Field Goal30–27
• OT 0:00ARMYDawson Jones 40 Yd Field Goal27–27
• OT 0:00TARLBrad Larson 28 Yd Field Goal27–24
• Q4 9:05TARLDawson Hearne 15 Yd pass from Victor Gabalis (Brad Larson Kick)24–24
• Q3 5:15TARLCaleb Lewis 6 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick)17–24
• Q3 8:14ARMYHayden Reed 37 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–24
• Q2 0:15ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–17
• Q2 1:47ARMYDawson Jones 24 Yd Field Goal 10–10
• Q2 9:43TARLTre Page III 10 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick)10–7
• Q1 4:08ARMYDewayne Coleman 26 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)3–7
• Q1 8:05TARLBrad Larson 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Tarleton State were +14.2 — a 19% shot

#62 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #18 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.

The 2025 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →