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Syracuse vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 22, 8:30 PM
Notre Dame Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| ND | 35 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 70 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2189
SYR 1304
Projected spread
ND -37.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
100% to win
Market spread
ND -36.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
100%
ND · market 100%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2189, SYR Elo 1304) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -37.8 (100% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ND (top)SYR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ND 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SYR2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.03
PPA / play
0.3638%
Success rate
49%1.21
Explosiveness
1.442.98
Pts / opportunity
4.7970%
Power success
62%Defense
0.28
PPA allowed / play
0.0445%
Success rate allowed
36%1.32
Explosiveness allowed
1.2813%
Havoc rate
18%21%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. SYR rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge ND.
- SYR rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. ND rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. SYR pass defense (0.44 allowed) — edge ND.
Drive-by-drive
SYR 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ND 7/11 scoring drives
SYRTD2 pl, -2 yds· own 41Q1
SYRTD3 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q1
SYRTD6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1
SYRPUNT3 pl, -15 yds· own 20Q1
NDTD2 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
SYRPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1
NDTD3 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
SYRPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q1
NDTD6 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q1
SYRDOWNS10 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q2
NDTD4 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q2
SYRPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
NDPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 23Q2
SYRMISS9 pl, 32 yds· own 38Q2
NDEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 30Q2
NDTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
SYRPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3
NDPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q3
SYRINT13 pl, 50 yds· own 29Q3
NDTD6 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3
SYRDOWNS6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q4
NDTD7 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q4
SYRTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
NDEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 33Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ND up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 100 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ND went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Syracuse vs. Notre Dame?
Syracuse 7, Notre Dame 70.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.