Syracuse vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SYRTeam statsMIA
- Q4 0:21SYRElijah Washington-Baker 17 Yd pass from Joseph Filardi (Tripp Woody Kick)10–38
- Q4 2:53MIAFrancis Mauigoa 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)3–38
- Q3 0:00MIACarter Davis 36 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q3 2:25MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 19 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)3–28
- Q3 9:57MIAKeelan Marion 61 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)3–21
- Q3 11:12SYRTripp Woody 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 1:50MIAKeionte Scott 38 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)0–14
- Q2 2:13MIACarson Beck 14 Yd pass from Malachi Toney (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SYR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassRickie Collins 12/25, 85 YDS, 2 INT
- RushYasin Willis 13 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecDaunte Bacheyie 2 REC, 22 YDS
- PassCarson Beck 18/24, 247 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGirard Pringle Jr. 7 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeelan Marion 3 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:13MIA +8%
Carson Beck 14 Yd pass from Malachi Toney (Carter Davis Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Syracuse vs. Miami?
Syracuse 10, Miami 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| SYR | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 384 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 261 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 19/25 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 10.4 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 5-54 |
| 29:37 | Possession | 30:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:21 SYR punt on 4th & 3 at SYR 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:21SYRElijah Washington-Baker 17 Yd pass from Joseph Filardi (Tripp Woody Kick)10–38
- Q4 2:53MIAFrancis Mauigoa 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)3–38
- Q3 0:00MIACarter Davis 36 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q3 2:25MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 19 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)3–28
- Q3 9:57MIAKeelan Marion 61 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)3–21
- Q3 11:12SYRTripp Woody 38 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 1:50MIAKeionte Scott 38 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)0–14
- Q2 2:13MIACarson Beck 14 Yd pass from Malachi Toney (Carter Davis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1849, SYR Elo 1320 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -23.6 (93% to win) — 4.9 points clear of SYR's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 17–8 · 32% have been one-possession games
| SYR | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.9 (#127) | CORE overall | +31.1 (#6) |
| -14 / +7 | offense / defense | +14 / -18 |
| 1.12 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 2.89 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →