Syracuse
ACC· Elo 1320
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| MIA | 0 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIA Elo 1849, SYR Elo 1320) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIA -23.6 (96% to win) — 4.9 points of value on SYR versus the market line of -28.5.
MIA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Syracuse 10, Miami 38.
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Keionte Scott 38 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)
Keelan Marion 61 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)
(00:20) Shotgun #6 Y.Willis rush right for 4 yards loss to the MIA14 fumbled by #6 Y.Willis at MIA13 forced by #3 A.Mesidor recovered by MIA #8 J.Thomas at MIA14, End Of Play
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