| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 10 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| CLEM | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLEM Elo 1693, SYR Elo 1484) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -10.8 (79% to win) — 6.7 points of value on SYR versus the market line of -17.5.
SYR up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Syracuse 34, Clemson 21.
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had CLEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for 59 yds to the CLEM 31 for a 1ST down
Adam Randall run for 39 yds to the SYR 41 for a 1ST down
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 38 yds for a TD Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (David Clement) declined (Nolan Hauser KICK)
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