| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STON | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SDSU | 14 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = STON ahead, below = SDSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Stony Brook vs. San Diego State?
Stony Brook 0, San Diego State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked STON, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had STON pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.