Stony Brook vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Stony Brook
San Diego State
▸Final
Snapdragon Stadium
STONTeam statsSDSU
95Total yards464
46Pass236
49Rush228
6First downs24
2-153rd down9-19
0Turnovers0
22:35Possession37:25
- Q4 1:54SDSUParker Threatt 5 Yd Run (Nick Clegg Kick)0–42
- Q4 11:06SDSUChristian Washington 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–35
- Q3 1:40SDSULucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (DJ Herman Pass to Brady Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q2 1:09SDSUGabriel Plascencia 35 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 8:31SDSUGabriel Plascencia 42 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 0:37SDSUJacob Bostick 25 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:39SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
SDSU −19.5
Against the number
SDSU covered
line SDSU −19.5
STON aheadSDSU ahead
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = STON ahead, below = SDSU ahead.
GRIDPEX.COM
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Closing line
SDSU −19.5
Closing total
53.5
Model line
—
Actual result
STON 0 – 42 SDSU
Stony Brook
- PassCasey Case 4/10, 25 YDS
- RushRoland Dempster 13 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecDez Williams 3 REC, 26 YDS
San Diego State
- PassJayden Denegal 13/25, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLucky Sutton 23 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJacob Bostick 3 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
21.4sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
167
Points / snap
0.25
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
SDSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Stony Brook vs. San Diego State?
Stony Brook 0, San Diego State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
STON
SDSU
17%
Success rate
42%
-0.45
EPA / pass
0.15
-0.01
EPA / rush
0.27
11%
Early-down success
40%
6%
Pass success
34%
28%
Rush success
47%
2%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
22%
Stuffed rush rate
14%
51%
Pass rate
37%
5.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.8
STON
5.4 yards to go on 3rd down
65 scrimmage snaps
SDSU
6.8 yards to go on 3rd down
102 scrimmage snaps
| STON | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Total yards | 464 |
| 46 | Passing yards | 236 |
| 49 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 6 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 9-19 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 9/25 | Comp/Att | 16/29 |
| 1.8 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 22:35 | Possession | 37:25 |
STON
11/13 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
SDSU
12/13 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 8:51 STON punt on 4th & 2 at STON 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSTON 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 6/12 scoring drives
SDSUTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
STONPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUTD13 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
STONPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 37Q2
STONPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q2
SDSUFG5 pl, 45 yds· own 31Q2
STONPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2
SDSUFG13 pl, 61 yds· own 22Q2
STONEND3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q2
STONPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 8Q3
SDSUPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 31Q3
STONPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q3
SDSUDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 38Q3
STONPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 33Q3
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q3
STONPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 20Q3
SDSUTD5 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q3
STONDOWNS6 pl, 23 yds· own 38Q3
SDSUTD9 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4
STONPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
SDSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 29Q4
STONPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 17Q4
SDSUTD8 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4
STONEND3 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 1:54SDSUParker Threatt 5 Yd Run (Nick Clegg Kick)0–42
- Q4 11:06SDSUChristian Washington 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–35
- Q3 1:40SDSULucky Sutton 2 Yd Run (DJ Herman Pass to Brady Anderson for Two-Point Conversion)0–28
- Q2 1:09SDSUGabriel Plascencia 35 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 8:31SDSUGabriel Plascencia 42 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 0:37SDSUJacob Bostick 25 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:39SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →