| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 7 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| UVA | 21 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 48 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UVA Elo 1518, STAN Elo 1296) plus home-field advantage. That projects UVA -11.3 (80% to win) — 4.7 points of value on STAN versus the market line of -16.
UVA up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Stanford 20, Virginia 48.
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 68 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 75 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to C.J. Williams for 29 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST down
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