Stanford vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsUVA
- Q4 4:26UVAEli Wood 4 Yd pass from Daniel Kaelin (Will Bettridge Kick)20–48
- Q4 12:26UVAWill Bettridge 26 Yd Field Goal 20–41
- Q3 4:18STANBryce Farrell 68 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–38
- Q3 5:35UVAWill Bettridge 28 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q3 11:21UVASage Ennis 13 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:55STANMicah Ford 3 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)14–28
- Q2 9:05UVAChandler Morris 13 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–28
- Q1 3:36UVATrell Harris 27 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)7–21
- Q1 8:17UVATrell Harris 75 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:27STANBenji Blackburn 5 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08UVATrell Harris 3 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBen Gulbranson 20/29, 286 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMicah Ford 13 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBryce Farrell 4 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChandler Morris 23/31, 380 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 15 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecTrell Harris 4 REC, 145 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:17UVA +13%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 75 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
- Q1 8:27STAN +13%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Benji Blackburn for 5 yds for a TD (Emmet Kenney KICK)
- Q1 11:08UVA +12%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Trell Harris for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
- Q1 0:00UVA +8%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the UVA 15
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. Virginia?
Stanford 20, Virginia 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| STAN | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Total yards | 590 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 384 |
| 35 | Rushing yards | 206 |
| 15 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 24/32 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 12.0 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 7-55 |
| 25:12 | Possession | 34:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:11 UVA punt on 4th & 3 at UVA 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.17 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:26UVAEli Wood 4 Yd pass from Daniel Kaelin (Will Bettridge Kick)20–48
- Q4 12:26UVAWill Bettridge 26 Yd Field Goal 20–41
- Q3 4:18STANBryce Farrell 68 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–38
- Q3 5:35UVAWill Bettridge 28 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q3 11:21UVASage Ennis 13 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:55STANMicah Ford 3 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)14–28
- Q2 9:05UVAChandler Morris 13 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–28
- Q1 3:36UVATrell Harris 27 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)7–21
- Q1 8:17UVATrell Harris 75 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:27STANBenji Blackburn 5 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08UVATrell Harris 3 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1518, STAN Elo 1296 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -11.3 (78% to win) — 4.7 points clear of STAN's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| STAN | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.6 (#102) | CORE overall | +10.3 (#39) |
| -11 / +1 | offense / defense | +1 / -9 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →