Malone StadiumClosing line: ULM -30.5 · ST. covered
Thu, Aug 28, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ULM | 7 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 29 |
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
ULM up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
St. Francis (PA) 0, UL Monroe 29.
No — the model picked ST. , which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ST. pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Braylon McReynolds run for 74 yds to the SFPA 1 for a 1ST down
Landon Graves pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 19 yds for a TD Saint Francis Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ike Okoye) declined (Luke Stagg PAT BLOCKED)
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Jeremiah Harris return for 22 yds to the SFPA 25
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