Southern vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Southern

07

Fresno State2-1

▸0056

Final

Valley Children's Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	0	7	0	0	7
FRES	14	21	7	14	56

SOUTTeam statsFRES

142Total yards507

131Pass282

11Rush225

7First downs31

3-123rd down8-10

0Turnovers1

25:14Possession34:46

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:58FRESElijah Gilliam 5 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–56
• Q4 10:37FRESJohnathan Arceneaux 3 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–49
• Q3 3:06FRESRayshon Luke 19 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–42
• Q2 0:33FRESRichie Anderson III 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–35
• Q2 5:27FRESBryson Donelson 57 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–28
• Q2 5:41SOUTTrey Holly 1 Yd Run (Nathan Zimmer Kick)7–21
• Q2 10:58FRESRayshon Luke 19 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:54FRESJordan Brown 6 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:53FRESHarold Duvall 25 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

FRES −37

Against the number

FRES covered

line FRES −37

What the numbers say

• SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FRES did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 4.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FRES 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff137 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

FRES (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FRES 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

FRES −37

Closing total

51.0

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 7 – 56 FRES

Leaders

Southern

• PassAshton Strother 9/14, 127 YDS
• RushJason Gabriel 9 CAR, 13 YDS
• RecMalachi Jackson 2 REC, 55 YDS

Fresno State

• PassE.J. Warner 20/24, 240 YDS, 4 TD
• RushBryson Donelson 9 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
• RecRayshon Luke 7 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

117

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FRES up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

FRES went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WAir Force vs Robert Morris42-7WMiami (OH) vs Delaware State62-20WMaine vs Stony Brook56-28WMichigan vs Nebraska45-7WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa41-6

Fourth downs

10 calls

SOUT gave up 0.2 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 7/8 · FRES 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Southern vs. Fresno State?

Southern 7, Fresno State 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

FRES

22%

Success rate

65%

0.48

EPA / pass

0.81

-0.41

EPA / rush

0.31

21%

Early-down success

63%

35%

Pass success

70%

12%

Rush success

62%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

40%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

44%

Pass rate

46%

7.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.5

SOUT

7.4 yards to go on 3rd down

45 scrimmage snaps

FRES

4.5 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		FRES
142	Total yards	507
131	Passing yards	282
11	Rushing yards	225
7	First downs	31
3-12	3rd down	8-10
0-0	4th down	0-0
10/18	Comp/Att	25/30
7.3	Yards per pass	9.4
0.4	Yards per rush	5.5
0	Turnovers	1
12-91	Penalties	6-50
25:14	Possession	34:46

Fourth downs

10 calls

SOUT

7/8 with the model

−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

FRES

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 5:53 SOUT punt on 4th & 3 at SOUT 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.16 points.

Every call, priced (10)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →FRES 8/11 scoring drives

FRESTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

FRESTD10 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q1

FRESPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 33Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 1Q2

FRESTD4 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q2

SOUTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

FRESTD1 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2

SOUTMISS10 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q2

FRESTD8 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2

SOUTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 15Q3

FRESFUM8 pl, 39 yds· opp 42Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 3Q3

FRESTD7 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 40Q3

FRESTD10 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 11Q4

FRESTD8 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

FRESEND5 pl, 8 yds· own 43Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:58FRESElijah Gilliam 5 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–56
• Q4 10:37FRESJohnathan Arceneaux 3 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–49
• Q3 3:06FRESRayshon Luke 19 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–42
• Q2 0:33FRESRichie Anderson III 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–35
• Q2 5:27FRESBryson Donelson 57 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–28
• Q2 5:41SOUTTrey Holly 1 Yd Run (Nathan Zimmer Kick)7–21
• Q2 10:58FRESRayshon Luke 19 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:54FRESJordan Brown 6 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:53FRESHarold Duvall 25 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →