| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| FRES | 14 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 56 |
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
FRES up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Southern 7, Fresno State 56.
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Bryson Donelson run for 57 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
Ashton Strother pass complete to Malachi Jackson for 28 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST down
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