Centennial Bank StadiumClosing line: ARST -15.5 · ARST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| ARST | 7 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
Team stats
SOUTthis game · better side highlightedARST
364
Total yards
492272
Passing yards
34592
Rushing yards
14720
First downs
256-14 · 43%
Third down
5-11 · 45%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 100%
Drive-by-drive
SOUT 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 6/11 scoring drives
ARSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
SOUTFG19 pl, 68 yds· own 10Q1
SOUTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ARST up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ARST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southeast Missouri State vs. Arkansas State?
Southeast Missouri State 24, Arkansas State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SOUT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SOUT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.