Southeast Missouri State vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Southeast Missouri State
Arkansas State
▸Final
Centennial Bank Stadium
SOUTTeam statsARST
364Total yards492
272Pass345
92Rush147
20First downs25
6-143rd down5-11
1Turnovers1
29:08Possession30:52
- Q4 1:23SOUTCam Pedro 31 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Justin Keller Kick)24–42
- Q4 7:51SOUTDonnie Cheers 60 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Justin Keller Kick)17–42
- Q4 8:56ARSTJaylen Bonelli 10 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–42
- Q3 12:28ARSTCorey Rucker 9 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–35
- Q2 0:35ARSTKenyon Clay 2 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–28
- Q2 9:05ARSTDevin Spencer 43 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–21
- Q2 10:13ARSTJa'Quez Cross 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:03SOUTJustin Keller 40 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:18SOUTBrandon Epton Jr. 8 Yd Run (Justin Keller Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:05ARSTJa'Quez Cross 7 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
ARST −15.5
Against the number
ARST covered
line ARST −15.5
Kickoff157 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
ARST (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 100%
Closing line
ARST −15.5
Closing total
59.5
Model line
—
Actual result
SOUT 24 – 42 ARST
Southeast Missouri State
- PassJax Leatherwood 26/36, 272 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrandon Epton Jr. 14 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonnie Cheers 4 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Arkansas State
- PassJaylen Raynor 26/32, 345 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDevin Spencer 3 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChauncy Cobb 5 REC, 85 YDS
24.6sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
143
Points / snap
0.46
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ARST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southeast Missouri State vs. Arkansas State?
Southeast Missouri State 24, Arkansas State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARST) was correct.
SOUT
ARST
41%
Success rate
49%
0.36
EPA / pass
0.93
-0.03
EPA / rush
-0.23
39%
Early-down success
47%
45%
Pass success
63%
36%
Rush success
35%
10%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
16%
Stuffed rush rate
30%
56%
Pass rate
49%
6.0
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.5
SOUT
6.0 yards to go on 3rd down
71 scrimmage snaps
ARST
6.5 yards to go on 3rd down
72 scrimmage snaps
| SOUT | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 364 | Total yards | 492 |
| 272 | Passing yards | 345 |
| 92 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 20 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 26/36 | Comp/Att | 26/32 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-71 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 29:08 | Possession | 30:52 |
SOUT
8/8 with the model
nothing given up
ARST
4/4 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSOUT 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 6/11 scoring drives
ARSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
SOUTFG19 pl, 68 yds· own 10Q1
SOUTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
ARSTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 33Q1
SOUTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 31Q2
ARSTTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
SOUTFUM4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2
ARSTTD2 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2
ARSTDOWNS7 pl, 24 yds· own 44Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 32Q2
ARSTTD11 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTDOWNS14 pl, 59 yds· own 9Q3
ARSTTD3 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3
ARSTFUM11 pl, 62 yds· own 30Q3
ARSTTD10 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q4
SOUTTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
ARSTPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4
SOUTTD7 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
ARSTTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
SOUTUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 12Q4
- Q4 1:23SOUTCam Pedro 31 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Justin Keller Kick)24–42
- Q4 7:51SOUTDonnie Cheers 60 Yd pass from Jax Leatherwood (Justin Keller Kick)17–42
- Q4 8:56ARSTJaylen Bonelli 10 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–42
- Q3 12:28ARSTCorey Rucker 9 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–35
- Q2 0:35ARSTKenyon Clay 2 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–28
- Q2 9:05ARSTDevin Spencer 43 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–21
- Q2 10:13ARSTJa'Quez Cross 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:03SOUTJustin Keller 40 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:18SOUTBrandon Epton Jr. 8 Yd Run (Justin Keller Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:05ARSTJa'Quez Cross 7 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →