Stanford Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 29 |
| STAN | 7 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 30 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
STAN 1249
SJSU 1429
Projected spread
STAN +4.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
SJSU
64% to win
Market spread
STAN -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
SJSU
7.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
36%
STAN · market 56%
Our model blends Elo ratings (STAN Elo 1249, SJSU Elo 1429) plus home-field advantage. That projects STAN +4.8 (36% to win) — 7.8 points of value on SJSU versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
STAN (top)SJSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: STAN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- STAN pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- STAN rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. SJSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- SJSU rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. STAN rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge SJSU.
Drive-by-drive
SJSU 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →STAN 5/12 scoring drives
STANTD11 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
SJSUFG7 pl, 61 yds· own 16Q1
STANFUM3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SJSU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
SJSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Stanford?
San José State 29, Stanford 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SJSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.