Snapdragon StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| SDSU | 11 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 25 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SDSU 1507
SJSU 1208
Projected spread
SDSU -14.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
SDSU
86% to win
Market spread
SDSU -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
SDSU
4.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
SDSU · market 78%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1507, SJSU Elo 1208) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -14.4 (86% to win) — 4.4 points of value on SDSU versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SDSU (top)SJSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SDSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- SJSU pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. SJSU pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SJSU.
- SJSU rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge SJSU.
Drive-by-drive
SJSU 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 4/11 scoring drives
SJSUINT3 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUTD6 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q1
SJSUMISS11 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
SDSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. San Diego State?
San José State 3, San Diego State 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SDSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.