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Sam Houston vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Nov 9, 3:00 AM
Reser Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| ORST | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORST 1252
SHSU 1052
Projected spread
ORST -10.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
ORST
78% to win
Market spread
ORST -21
sportsbook line
Model edge
SHSU
10.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
ORST · market 90%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORST Elo 1252, SHSU Elo 1052) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORST -10.4 (78% to win) — 10.6 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of -21.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ORST (top)SHSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SHSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedORST
Offense
0.01
PPA / play
0.0537%
Success rate
42%1.24
Explosiveness
1.052.79
Pts / opportunity
2.8966%
Power success
77%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.1848%
Success rate allowed
38%1.24
Explosiveness allowed
1.4414%
Havoc rate
17%17%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. ORST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ORST.
- ORST pass offense (0.11 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
Drive-by-drive
SHSU 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 5/15 scoring drives
ORSTTD6 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
SHSUPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 19Q1
ORSTFG5 pl, 24 yds· opp 39Q1
SHSUDOWNS6 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q1
ORSTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· opp 48Q1
SHSUPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 14Q1
ORSTFUM1 pl, -14 yds· own 25Q1
SHSUMISS4 pl, 0 yds· opp 11Q2
ORSTTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
SHSUPUNT5 pl, 32 yds· own 26Q2
ORSTINT8 pl, 57 yds· own 5Q2
SHSUTD1 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q2
ORSTMISS9 pl, 50 yds· own 18Q2
ORSTTD2 pl, 98 yds· own 35Q3
ORSTMISS6 pl, 38 yds· own 33Q3
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 29Q3
ORSTDOWNS11 pl, 56 yds· own 28Q3
SHSUMISS14 pl, 55 yds· own 16Q3
ORSTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 29Q4
SHSUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 18Q4
ORSTTD5 pl, -22 yds· own 30Q4
ORSTDOWNS8 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q4
SHSUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 10Q4
ORSTINT5 pl, 12 yds· opp 48Q4
SHSUINT3 pl, -10 yds· own 45Q4
ORSTDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 28Q4
SHSUEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 23Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ORST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
ORST went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Oregon State?
Sam Houston 21, Oregon State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ORST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.