Mackay StadiumClosing line: NEV -8.5 · SAC covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| NEV | 0 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
Team stats
SACthis game · better side highlightedNEV
371
Total yards
414225
Passing yards
144146
Rushing yards
27015
First downs
232-12 · 17%
Third down
4-12 · 33%Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NEV (top)SAC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEV 100%
Drive-by-drive
SAC 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →NEV 3/10 scoring drives
SACTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NEVINT10 pl, 51 yds· own 26Q1
SACPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 8Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SAC up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
SAC went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Sacramento State vs. Nevada?
Sacramento State 17, Nevada 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SAC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SAC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.