Sacramento State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Sacramento State

0017

Nevada0-1

▸0020

Final

Mackay Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	7	10	0	0	17
NEV	0	13	0	7	20

SACTeam statsNEV

371Total yards409

225Pass144

146Rush265

15First downs23

2-123rd down4-12

1Turnovers2

27:14Possession32:42

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:17NEVJonathan Maldonado 36 Yd Interception Return (Joe McFadden Kick)17–20
• Q2 0:00NEVJoe McFadden 40 Yd Field Goal17–13
• Q2 0:53SACErnest Campbell 75 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Grant Meadors Kick)17–10
• Q2 1:02NEVChubba Purdy 3 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)10–10
• Q2 7:17NEVJoe McFadden 37 Yd Field Goal10–3
• Q2 13:04SACGrant Meadors 35 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 10:55SACRodney Hammond Jr. 5 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

NEV −8.5

Against the number

SAC covered

line NEV −8.5

What the numbers say

• SAC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.4 vs 3rd & 7.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NEV 100%50%SAC 100%

Kickoff156 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NEV (top)SAC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEV 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NEV −8.5

Closing total

56.0

Model line

—

Actual result

SAC 17 – 20 NEV

Leaders

Sacramento State

• PassCardell Williams 11/13, 158 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushJamar Curtis 8 CAR, 37 YDS
• RecErnest Campbell 3 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD

Nevada

• PassChubba Purdy 12/21, 144 YDS, 2 INT
• RushChubba Purdy 21 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMarcus Bellon 2 REC, 59 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.28

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SAC up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

SAC went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13LMorgan State vs Akron21-24LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20

Fourth downs

17 calls

SAC gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.SAC 3/8 · NEV 4/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Sacramento State vs. Nevada?

Sacramento State 17, Nevada 20.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NEV) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SAC

NEV

38%

Success rate

44%

0.02

EPA / pass

-0.45

0.16

EPA / rush

0.26

41%

Early-down success

46%

32%

Pass success

42%

42%

Rush success

46%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

23%

37%

Pass rate

33%

11.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.6

SAC

11.4 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

NEV

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SAC		NEV
371	Total yards	409
225	Passing yards	144
146	Rushing yards	265
15	First downs	23
2-12	3rd down	4-12
2-3	4th down	2-4
14/19	Comp/Att	12/21
11.8	Yards per pass	6.9
3.6	Yards per rush	5.5
1	Turnovers	2
9-71	Penalties	7-62
27:14	Possession	32:42

Fourth downs

17 calls

SAC

3/8 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

NEV

4/7 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 6:39 SAC punt on 4th & 1 at SAC 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SAC 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →NEV 3/10 scoring drives

SACTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NEVINT10 pl, 51 yds· own 26Q1

SACPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 8Q1

NEVPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· opp 38Q1

SACFG16 pl, 81 yds· own 1Q1

NEVFG10 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q2

SACDOWNS9 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

NEVTD6 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

SACTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

NEVFG6 pl, 52 yds· own 25Q2

NEVINT8 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q3

SACPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 48Q3

NEVPUNT7 pl, 55 yds· own 1Q3

SACPUNT5 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q3

NEVDOWNS8 pl, 57 yds· own 22Q3

SACPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 21Q4

NEVDOWNS12 pl, 53 yds· own 21Q4

SACTD2 pl, 3 yds· own 26Q4

SACMISS9 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q4

NEVEND1 pl, -13 yds· own 24Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:17NEVJonathan Maldonado 36 Yd Interception Return (Joe McFadden Kick)17–20
• Q2 0:00NEVJoe McFadden 40 Yd Field Goal17–13
• Q2 0:53SACErnest Campbell 75 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Grant Meadors Kick)17–10
• Q2 1:02NEVChubba Purdy 3 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)10–10
• Q2 7:17NEVJoe McFadden 37 Yd Field Goal10–3
• Q2 13:04SACGrant Meadors 35 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 10:55SACRodney Hammond Jr. 5 Yd Run (Grant Meadors Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →