Purdue vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PURTeam statsND
- Q4 1:53PURJesse Watson 24 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)30–56
- Q3 3:46NDJadarian Price 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)23–56
- Q3 9:52NDJordan Faison 48 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)23–49
- Q3 12:54NDJeremiyah Love 46 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)23–42
- Q2 0:07PURNitro Tuggle 24 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)23–35
- Q2 1:00NDJadarian Price 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Erik Schmidt Kick)16–35
- Q2 1:13PURSpencer Porath 35 Yd Field Goal 16–28
- Q2 1:46PURSpencer Porath 26 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q2 6:33NDJadarian Price 9 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–28
- Q2 10:00NDJadarian Price 21 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–21
- Q2 14:50PURSpencer Porath 48 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 5:54NDJeremiyah Love 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:58PURRyan Browne 14 Yd pass from Devin Mockobee (Spencer Porath Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:40NDMalachi Fields 66 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PUR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ND did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassRyan Browne 21/34, 250 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMalachi Singleton 5 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecNitro Tuggle 3 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCJ Carr 10/12, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeremiyah Love 19 CAR, 157 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJordan Faison 5 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Purdue vs. Notre Dame?
Purdue 30, Notre Dame 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| PUR | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 379 | Total yards | 535 |
| 303 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 254 |
| 20 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 25/40 | Comp/Att | 17/20 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 14.1 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-75 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 28:00 | Possession | 32:00 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:19 ND field goal on 4th & 1 at PUR 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:53PURJesse Watson 24 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Spencer Porath Kick)30–56
- Q3 3:46NDJadarian Price 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)23–56
- Q3 9:52NDJordan Faison 48 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)23–49
- Q3 12:54NDJeremiyah Love 46 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)23–42
- Q2 0:07PURNitro Tuggle 24 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)23–35
- Q2 1:00NDJadarian Price 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Erik Schmidt Kick)16–35
- Q2 1:13PURSpencer Porath 35 Yd Field Goal 16–28
- Q2 1:46PURSpencer Porath 26 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q2 6:33NDJadarian Price 9 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–28
- Q2 10:00NDJadarian Price 21 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)10–21
- Q2 14:50PURSpencer Porath 48 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 5:54NDJeremiyah Love 1 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:58PURRyan Browne 14 Yd pass from Devin Mockobee (Spencer Porath Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:40NDMalachi Fields 66 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2141, PUR Elo 1310 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -35.6 (98% to win) — 11.1 points clear of ND's market line of -24.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 61–26–2 · Notre Dame has won 10 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| PUR | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#93) | CORE overall | +38.3 (#2) |
| -4 / +5 | offense / defense | +20 / -18 |
| 1.57 | points / drive | 3.84 |
| 3.07 | allowed / drive | 1.28 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →