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Purdue vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 7:30 PM
Notre Dame Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 7 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 30 |
| ND | 14 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 56 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ND 2141
PUR 1310
Projected spread
ND -35.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
100% to win
Market spread
ND -24.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ND
11.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
100%
ND · market 93%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2141, PUR Elo 1310) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -35.6 (100% to win) — 11.1 points of value on ND versus the market line of -24.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ND (top)PUR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ND 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
PUR2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedND
Offense
0.11
PPA / play
0.3643%
Success rate
49%1.24
Explosiveness
1.443.06
Pts / opportunity
4.7956%
Power success
62%Defense
0.27
PPA allowed / play
0.0448%
Success rate allowed
36%1.21
Explosiveness allowed
1.2815%
Havoc rate
18%18%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- PUR rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ND rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge PUR.
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. PUR rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge ND.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. PUR pass defense (0.40 allowed) — edge ND.
Drive-by-drive
PUR 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ND 7/13 scoring drives
PURPUNT3 pl, -14 yds· own 35Q1
NDTD1 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1
PURTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NDTD10 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1
PURFG13 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q1
NDTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
PURINT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
NDTD5 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q2
PURFG12 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q2
NDFUM1 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q2
PURFG4 pl, 1 yds· opp 19Q2
PURTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
NDTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
NDEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 39Q2
PURPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
NDTD3 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q3
PURPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3
NDTD8 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
PURPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
NDMISS7 pl, 63 yds· own 24Q3
PURPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q4
NDDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 47Q4
PURINT4 pl, 17 yds· own 44Q4
NDDOWNS7 pl, 28 yds· own 30Q4
PURTD5 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q4
NDEND3 pl, -3 yds· own 19Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ND up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ND went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Purdue vs. Notre Dame?
Purdue 30, Notre Dame 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.