| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 0 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| MICH | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MICH Elo 1823, PUR Elo 1296) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -23.5 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MICH up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Purdue 16, Michigan 21.
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 12 yards gain to the PUR00 fumbled by #19 B.Underwood at PUR04 forced by #91 C.Nunnally, Touchback
End of 2nd quarter.
End of 1st quarter.
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