Purdue vs. Michigan: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Purdue2-6

Michigan6-2

▸

Final

Michigan StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
PUR	0	7	3	6	16
MICH	7	7	0	7	21

PURTeam statsMICH

276Total yards398

138Pass145

138Rush253

18First downs20

5-123rd down6-11

1Turnovers2

32:55Possession27:05

Q4 6:00PURMalachi Thomas 5 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
Q4 10:03MICHJordan Marshall 9 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–21
Q3 9:00PURSpencer Porath 50 Yd Field Goal 10–14
Q2 0:17MICHJordan Marshall 3 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
Q2 6:55PURAntonio Harris 2 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)7–7
Q1 1:25MICHJordan Marshall 54 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

MICH −23.5

market MICH −21.5

Biggest swing

MICH +12%

Q4 1:18

Against the number

PUR covered

line MICH −21.5

MICH favored ↑50%PUR favored ↓

GridpexMICH 100%

Closing line

MICH −21.5

Closing total

48.5

Model line

MICH −23.5

Actual result

PUR 16 – 21 MICH

Purdue

PassRyan Browne 19/24, 133 YDS, 1 TD
RushMalachi Thomas 15 CAR, 68 YDS
RecMichael Jackson III 6 REC, 58 YDS

Michigan

PassBryce Underwood 13/22, 145 YDS, 1 INT
RushJordan Marshall 25 CAR, 185 YDS, 3 TD
RecZack Marshall 3 REC, 58 YDS

25.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.28

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MICH up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

MICH went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13 LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13 LMorgan State vs Akron21-24 LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33 WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20

Q4 1:18MICH +12%
Kneel down by #19 B.Underwood at PUR10 for loss of 1 yard
Q4 6:00PUR +11%
Malachi Thomas 5 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Q2 0:17MICH +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN
Q2 6:55PUR +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN
Q4 10:03MICH +7%
Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN
Q3 9:00PUR +7%
#35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD

FAQ

What was the final score of Purdue vs. Michigan?

Purdue 16, Michigan 21.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.

PUR

MICH

47%

Success rate

51%

0.19

EPA / pass

-0.07

0.03

EPA / rush

0.31

50%

Early-down success

50%

Pass success

38%

44%

Rush success

60%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

14%

Stuffed rush rate

49%

Pass rate

39%

6.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.0

PUR

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

MICH

5.0 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

PUR		MICH
276	Total yards	398
138	Passing yards	145
138	Rushing yards	253
18	First downs	20
5-12	3rd down	6-11
1-2	4th down	0-0
20/26	Comp/Att	13/22
5.3	Yards per pass	6.6
3.5	Yards per rush	6.5
1	Turnovers	2
4-30	Penalties	4-32
32:55	Possession	27:05

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

MICH 1823

PUR 1296

Projected spread

MICH -23.5

incl. home edge

Model pick

MICH

93% to win

Market spread

MICH -21.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

93%

MICH · market 91%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1823, PUR Elo 1296 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -23.5 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

PUR2025 season · national rank shownMICH

343.6102nd

Total yards / game

397.958th

5.3101st

Yards / play

6.229th

217.281st

Passing yards / game

186.8107th

126.4105th

Rushing yards / game

211.214th

38.4%86th

3rd down %

43.6%32nd

423.9120th

Yards allowed / game

323.624th

43.4%114th

3rd down % allowed

37.4%52nd

-12129th

Turnover margin

+254th

4.824th

Penalties / game

4.413th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series61 meetings since 1892

Michigan leads 47–14 · Michigan has won 7 straight · 36% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

PUR		MICH
-9.5 (#93)	CORE overall	+17.4 (#22)
-4 / +5	offense / defense	+11 / -6
1.57	points / drive	2.70
3.07	allowed / drive	1.97
30%	three-and-outs	25%
+3	pass over expected	-2

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

PURTeam statsMICH

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Purdue vs. Michigan?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Purdue vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap

PURTeam statsMICH

How the model called it

What was the final score of Purdue vs. Michigan?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups