Penn State vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsOSU
- Q4 9:43OSUJeremiah Smith 11 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–38
- Q3 3:21OSUBennett Christian 1 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–31
- Q3 12:18OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:20PSUKaytron Allen 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:41OSUCarnell Tate 45 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:18PSUNicholas Singleton 3 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:08OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 6:15OSUJeremiah Smith 14 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.5 vs 3rd & 3.9
- PassEthan Grunkemeyer 19/28, 145 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKaytron Allen 21 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNicholas Singleton 3 REC, 28 YDS
- PassJulian Sayin 20/23, 316 YDS, 4 TD
- RushBo Jackson 13 CAR, 105 YDS
- RecCarnell Tate 5 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:20PSU +18%
#13 K.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 12:18OSU +17%
#12 C.Donaldson Jr rush left for 1 yard gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:18PSU +16%
#10 N.Singleton rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:41OSU +15%
J. Sayin pass to C. Tate for 45 yds, for a TD (J. Fielding KICK)
- Q1 6:15OSU +15%
J. Sayin pass to J. Smith for 14 yds, for a TD (J. Fielding KICK)
- Q3 3:21OSU +7%
J. Sayin pass to B. Christian for 1 yd, for a TD ( KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Ohio State?
Penn State 14, Ohio State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| PSU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 200 | Total yards | 480 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 316 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 15 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 6-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 20/23 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 13.7 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 2-30 |
| 29:53 | Possession | 30:07 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:25 PSU punt on 4th & 3 at OSU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:43OSUJeremiah Smith 11 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–38
- Q3 3:21OSUBennett Christian 1 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–31
- Q3 12:18OSUCJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:20PSUKaytron Allen 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)14–17
- Q2 3:41OSUCarnell Tate 45 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:18PSUNicholas Singleton 3 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:08OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 6:15OSUJeremiah Smith 14 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2098, PSU Elo 1990 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -6.7 (68% to win) — 10.8 points clear of PSU's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 27–14 · Ohio State has won 9 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| PSU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.0 (#32) | CORE overall | +39.2 (#1) |
| +8 / -5 | offense / defense | +14 / -26 |
| 2.96 | points / drive | 3.43 |
| 2.25 | allowed / drive | 1.15 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →