| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| OSU | 7 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 2098, PSU Elo 1990) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -6.7 (69% to win) — 10.8 points of value on PSU versus the market line of -17.5.
OSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Penn State 14, Ohio State 38.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
J. Sayin pass to C. Tate for 45 yds, for a TD (J. Fielding KICK)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass intercepted by #2 C.Downs at OSU00, Touchback
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