| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| CLEM | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLEM Elo 1758, PSU Elo 1951) on a neutral field. That projects CLEM +7.7 (28% to win) — 10.2 points of value on PSU versus the market line of -2.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = PSU ahead, below = CLEM ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
PSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Penn State 22, Clemson 10.
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Trebor Pena 73 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Quinton Martin Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete deep middle to #6 T.Brown caught at PSU35, for 20 yards to the PSU35 (#24 A.Campbell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short right to #5 D.Ross caught at CLE45, for 35 yards to the CLE27 (#23 A.Hampton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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