Oregon vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsRUTG
- Q4 6:40RUTGJa'shon Benjamin 7 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)56–10
- Q3 3:42OREDierre Hill Jr. 35 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)56–3
- Q3 11:44OREJordon Davison 20 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)49–3
- Q2 0:43ORENoah Whittington 5 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)42–3
- Q2 8:54ORENoah Whittington 28 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)35–3
- Q2 11:34OREDakorien Moore 34 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)28–3
- Q2 14:02OREKenyon Sadiq 21 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)21–3
- Q1 6:25OREKenyon Sadiq 30 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–3
- Q1 11:52ORENoah Whittington 68 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–3
- Q1 13:18RUTGJai Patel 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDante Moore 15/20, 290 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushNoah Whittington 11 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKenyon Sadiq 4 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 8/25, 79 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJa'shon Benjamin 18 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKJ Duff 3 REC, 41 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 48 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:52ORE +11%
Noah Whittington run for 68 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
- Q1 6:25ORE +7%
Saleapaga,Roger rush attempt Successful PENALTY RU Offside offsetting OU Illegal Formation offsetting. NO PLAY
- Q1 13:18RUTG +5%
Jai Patel 51 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 13:55RUTG +5%
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 2 yards to the RUTG 23
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Rutgers?
Oregon 56, Rutgers 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| ORE | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 750 | Total yards | 202 |
| 335 | Passing yards | 79 |
| 415 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 29 | First downs | 12 |
| 8-11 | 3rd down | 5-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 18/24 | Comp/Att | 8/27 |
| 14.0 | Yards per pass | 2.9 |
| 11.2 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 27:53 | Possession | 32:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:57 RUTG go for it on 4th & 5 at ORE 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.23 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:40RUTGJa'shon Benjamin 7 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)56–10
- Q3 3:42OREDierre Hill Jr. 35 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)56–3
- Q3 11:44OREJordon Davison 20 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)49–3
- Q2 0:43ORENoah Whittington 5 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)42–3
- Q2 8:54ORENoah Whittington 28 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)35–3
- Q2 11:34OREDakorien Moore 34 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)28–3
- Q2 14:02OREKenyon Sadiq 21 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)21–3
- Q1 6:25OREKenyon Sadiq 30 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–3
- Q1 11:52ORENoah Whittington 68 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–3
- Q1 13:18RUTGJai Patel 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1547, ORE Elo 1996 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +15.6 (16% to win) — 2.4 points clear of RUTG's market line of +18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORE | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| +34.6 (#4) | CORE overall | -4.9 (#79) |
| +19 / -16 | offense / defense | +10 / +14 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 3.60 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →