Oregon
5-1·Big Ten· Elo 1996
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 14 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 56 |
| RUTG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (RUTG Elo 1547, ORE Elo 1996) plus home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +15.6 (12% to win) — 2.4 points of value on RUTG versus the market line of +18.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ORE ahead, below = RUTG ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
ORE up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 48 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon 56, Rutgers 10.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Noah Whittington run for 68 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
Dante Moore pass complete to Jamari Johnson for 56 yds to the RUTG 15 for a 1ST down
Jordon Davison run for 67 yds to the RUTG 20 for a 1ST down
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