| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 0 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 30 |
| UK | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UK Elo 1507, MISS Elo 1939) plus home-field advantage. That projects UK +14.9 (14% to win) — 6.9 points of value on MISS versus the market line of +8.
MISS up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ole Miss 30, Kentucky 23.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 55 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST down
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 39 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST down
Austin Simmons pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 30 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST down
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