Ole Miss vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsUK
- Q4 0:08UKJacob Kauwe 39 Yd Field Goal 30–23
- Q4 1:10MISSLucas Carneiro 36 Yd Field Goal 30–20
- Q3 2:20MISSAustin Simmons 7 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)27–20
- Q3 5:38UKSeth McGowan 8 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:48MISSLucas Carneiro 28 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 1:05MISSLucas Carneiro 43 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 4:31UKJacob Kauwe 31 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 8:24MISSDamien Taylor 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–10
- Q2 12:25MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:17UKJacob Kauwe 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 1:55UKSeth McGowan 9 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UK lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassAustin Simmons 13/24, 235 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKewan Lacy 28 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHarrison Wallace III 4 REC, 117 YDS
- PassZach Calzada 15/30, 149 YDS
- RushSeth McGowan 15 CAR, 93 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJa'Mori Maclin 2 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:38UK +21%
Seth McGowan run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
- Q2 12:25MISS +20%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q3 2:20MISS +19%
Austin Simmons run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 1:55UK +17%
Seth McGowan run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
- Q2 8:24MISS +15%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q2 14:17UK +12%
Jacob Kauwe 33 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Kentucky?
Ole Miss 30, Kentucky 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| MISS | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 455 | Total yards | 359 |
| 235 | Passing yards | 187 |
| 220 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 16/33 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-86 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 27:47 | Possession | 32:13 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:50 UK go for it on 4th & 9 at MISS 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:08UKJacob Kauwe 39 Yd Field Goal 30–23
- Q4 1:10MISSLucas Carneiro 36 Yd Field Goal 30–20
- Q3 2:20MISSAustin Simmons 7 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)27–20
- Q3 5:38UKSeth McGowan 8 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:48MISSLucas Carneiro 28 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 1:05MISSLucas Carneiro 43 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 4:31UKJacob Kauwe 31 Yd Field Goal 14–13
- Q2 8:24MISSDamien Taylor 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–10
- Q2 12:25MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:17UKJacob Kauwe 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 1:55UKSeth McGowan 9 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1507, MISS Elo 1939 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +14.9 (18% to win) — 6.9 points clear of MISS's market line of +8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOle Miss leads 31–15–1 · 34% have been one-possession games
| MISS | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.4 (#16) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#52) |
| +16 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / -8 |
| 3.33 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →