Old Dominion vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsJMU
- Q4 2:57JMUZa'Ron Collins 18 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–63
- Q4 12:28JMUAlonza Barnett III 8 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–56
- Q3 0:30JMUAlonza Barnett III 3 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–49
- Q3 3:57JMUAlonza Barnett III 6 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–42
- Q3 10:49JMUWayne Knight 13 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–35
- Q2 1:57JMUJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–28
- Q2 6:49ODUDawson Johnson 16 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)27–21
- Q2 12:00JMUNick DeGennaro 7 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)20–21
- Q1 0:19ODUTre' Brown III 11 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan PAT failed)20–14
- Q1 3:05JMUNick DeGennaro 65 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:56ODUTre' Brown III 98 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:23JMUAlonza Barnett III 58 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:54ODULucas Struck 2 Yd Fumble Return (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ODU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassColton Joseph 13/21, 209 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushDevin Roche 7 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecTre' Brown 4 REC, 138 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAlonza Barnett III 17/25, 295 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAlonza Barnett III 17 CAR, 153 YDS, 4 TD
- RecNick DeGennaro 3 REC, 106 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:57JMU +23%
Jordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- Q2 6:49ODU +22%
Dawson Johnson 16 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)
- Q1 3:56ODU +21%
Tre' Brown III 98 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)
- Q2 12:00JMU +20%
Nick DeGennaro 7 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- Q3 10:49JMU +20%
Wayne Knight 13 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- Q1 3:05JMU +19%
Nick DeGennaro 65 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. James Madison?
Old Dominion 27, James Madison 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| ODU | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | Total yards | 624 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 313 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 311 |
| 13 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 12-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 10.0 | Yards per pass | 12.0 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 18:34 | Possession | 41:26 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:23 ODU punt on 4th & 1 at JMU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:57JMUZa'Ron Collins 18 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–63
- Q4 12:28JMUAlonza Barnett III 8 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–56
- Q3 0:30JMUAlonza Barnett III 3 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–49
- Q3 3:57JMUAlonza Barnett III 6 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–42
- Q3 10:49JMUWayne Knight 13 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–35
- Q2 1:57JMUJordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)27–28
- Q2 6:49ODUDawson Johnson 16 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)27–21
- Q2 12:00JMUNick DeGennaro 7 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)20–21
- Q1 0:19ODUTre' Brown III 11 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan PAT failed)20–14
- Q1 3:05JMUNick DeGennaro 65 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:56ODUTre' Brown III 98 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)14–7
- Q1 12:23JMUAlonza Barnett III 58 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:54ODULucas Struck 2 Yd Fumble Return (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1643, ODU Elo 1554 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -6 (67% to win) — 3.0 points clear of JMU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ODU | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.9 (#17) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#13) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +5 / -16 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 3.06 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →