Sat, Oct 18, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| JMU | 14 | 14 | 21 | 14 | 63 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (JMU Elo 1643, ODU Elo 1554) plus home-field advantage. That projects JMU -6 (67% to win) — 3.0 points of value on JMU versus the market line of -3.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ODU ahead, below = JMU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
JMU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Old Dominion 27, James Madison 63.
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Lucas Struck 2 Yd Fumble Return (Riley Callaghan Kick)
Tre' Brown III 98 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)
Alonza Barnett III 58 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
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