| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| IU | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 1800, ODU Elo 1480) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -15.2 (87% to win) — 8.3 points of value on ODU versus the market line of -23.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ODU ahead, below = IU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
IU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Old Dominion 14, Indiana 27.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Colton Joseph run for 78 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
Colton Joseph run for 75 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Riley Nowakowski
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