Old Dominion vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsIU
- Q4 6:53ODUColton Joseph 78 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)14–27
- Q3 3:02IUNico Radicic 25 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q3 11:09IUKaelon Black 2 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:36IUFernando Mendoza 5 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:03IUNico Radicic 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:09IUJonathan Brady 91 Yd Punt Return (Nico Radicic Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49ODUColton Joseph 75 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ODU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.3 vs 3rd & 2.8
- PassColton Joseph 11/22, 96 YDS, 3 INT
- RushColton Joseph 10 CAR, 179 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 4 REC, 35 YDS
- PassFernando Mendoza 18/31, 193 YDS
- RushRoman Hemby 23 CAR, 111 YDS
- RecOmar Cooper Jr. 2 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:09IU +17%
Ian Brandt punt for 56 yds, Jonathan Brady returns for 91 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
- Q2 3:36IU +10%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
- Q2 10:03IU +7%
Nico Radicic 22 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Indiana?
Old Dominion 14, Indiana 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| ODU | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 314 | Total yards | 502 |
| 96 | Passing yards | 193 |
| 218 | Rushing yards | 309 |
| 10 | First downs | 30 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 11/22 | Comp/Att | 18/32 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 9.5 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 18:32 | Possession | 41:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:14 IU punt on 4th & 7 at ODU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:53ODUColton Joseph 78 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)14–27
- Q3 3:02IUNico Radicic 25 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q3 11:09IUKaelon Black 2 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:36IUFernando Mendoza 5 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:03IUNico Radicic 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:09IUJonathan Brady 91 Yd Punt Return (Nico Radicic Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49ODUColton Joseph 75 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1800, ODU Elo 1480 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU -15.2 (84% to win) — 8.3 points clear of ODU's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ODU | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.9 (#17) | CORE overall | +35.3 (#3) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +19 / -17 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 3.69 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 0.94 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →