Oklahoma vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsTENN
- Q4 0:47TENNMax Gilbert 48 Yd Field Goal 33–27
- Q4 1:44OUJohn Mateer 1 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)33–24
- Q4 1:56TENNMike Matthews 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)26–24
- Q4 11:05OUTate Sandell 55 Yd Field Goal 26–17
- Q3 2:03OUXavier Robinson 4 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)23–17
- Q3 11:52TENNBraylon Staley 54 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)16–17
- Q2 0:00OUTate Sandell 40 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 1:08OUTate Sandell 51 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 7:36OUTate Sandell 55 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 3:30TENNMax Gilbert 45 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 8:01OUR Mason Thomas 71 Yd Fumble Recovery (Tate Sandell Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:17TENNBraylon Staley 5 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJohn Mateer 19/29, 159 YDS, 1 INT
- RushXavier Robinson 16 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsaiah Sategna III 6 REC, 68 YDS
- PassJoey Aguilar 29/45, 393 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushDeSean Bishop 12 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecMike Matthews 3 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:44OU +46%
John Mateer 1 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)
- Q4 1:56TENN +45%
Mike Matthews 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)
- Q3 11:52TENN +25%
Braylon Staley 54 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)
- Q4 11:05OU +24%
Tate Sandell 55 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 2:03OU +17%
Xavier Robinson 4 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)
- Q1 8:01OU +16%
Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar sacked for loss of 5 yards to the OKLA29 (#38 O.Heinecke), fumble by #6 J.Aguilar recovered by OKLA #32 R.Thomas at OKLA29 #32 R.Thomas return 71…
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. Tennessee?
Oklahoma 33, Tennessee 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OU | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 456 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 393 |
| 192 | Rushing yards | 63 |
| 19 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 29/45 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 11-104 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 30:07 | Possession | 29:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:08 OU field goal on 4th & 4 at TENN 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:47TENNMax Gilbert 48 Yd Field Goal 33–27
- Q4 1:44OUJohn Mateer 1 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)33–24
- Q4 1:56TENNMike Matthews 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)26–24
- Q4 11:05OUTate Sandell 55 Yd Field Goal 26–17
- Q3 2:03OUXavier Robinson 4 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)23–17
- Q3 11:52TENNBraylon Staley 54 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)16–17
- Q2 0:00OUTate Sandell 40 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 1:08OUTate Sandell 51 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 7:36OUTate Sandell 55 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 3:30TENNMax Gilbert 45 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 8:01OUR Mason Thomas 71 Yd Fumble Recovery (Tate Sandell Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:17TENNBraylon Staley 5 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1828, OU Elo 1780 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN -4.3 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OU | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.8 (#21) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#26) |
| -2 / -19 | offense / defense | +16 / +1 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 1.22 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →