| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 |
| TENN | 10 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1828, OU Elo 1780) plus home-field advantage. That projects TENN -4.3 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
OU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma 33, Tennessee 27.
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TENN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Braylon Staley 54 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)
End of 3rd quarter.
(06:55) Shotgun #24 X.Robinson rush middle for 14 yards gain to the TENN10 fumbled by #24 X.Robinson at TENN15 forced by #15 E.Farooq recovered by TENN #15 E.Farooq at TENN10, End Of Play PENALTY OKLA Holding declined
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