Williams-Brice StadiumConference gameClosing line: OU +-4.5 · OU covered
Sat, Oct 18, 4:45 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 7 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 26 |
| SC | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SC Elo 1670, OU Elo 1741) plus home-field advantage. That projects SC +0.4 (49% to win) — 4.1 points of value on SC versus the market line of +4.5.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = OU ahead, below = SC ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
OU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma 26, South Carolina 7.
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Cutter Woods pass intercepted, touchback. Jacobe Johnson return for no gain
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the OU 3
LaNorris Sellers run for 13 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST down
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