| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| UCF | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCF Elo 1468, OKST Elo 1080) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCF -17.9 (91% to win) — 4.9 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -13.
OKST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma State 14, UCF 17.
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UCF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep right to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF45, for 83 yards to the OKST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:39, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs)
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep left to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF31, for 50 yards to the OKST40 (#27 R.Gay II), 1ST DOWN
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush left for 12 yards gain to the OKST43 (#9 L.Fields), 1ST DOWN
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