Oklahoma State vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsUCF
- Q4 0:57UCFNoe Ruelas 34 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q4 9:12UCFDylan Wade 2 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–14
- Q3 14:39UCFDylan Wade 83 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–7
- Q2 0:50OKSTZane Flores 6 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:06OKSTGavin Freeman 5 Yd pass from Zane Flores (Logan Ward Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassZane Flores 13/28, 124 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRodney Fields Jr. 19 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecGavin Freeman 5 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTayven Jackson 16/25, 271 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushMyles Montgomery 18 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecDylan Wade 4 REC, 145 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:12UCF +41%
Dylan Wade 2 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)
- Q3 14:39UCF +28%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep right to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF45, for 83 yards to the OKST00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:50OKST +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:57UCF +21%
#16 N.Ruelas field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD
- Q4 6:33UCF +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep left to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF31, for 50 yards to the OKST40 (#27 R.Gay II), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:46UCF +18%
Kneel down by UCF at OKST27 for loss of 2 yards
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. UCF?
Oklahoma State 14, UCF 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
| OKST | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 228 | Total yards | 396 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 125 |
| 12 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 13/28 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 10-72 |
| 28:32 | Possession | 31:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:05 UCF punt on 4th & 2 at UCF 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:57UCFNoe Ruelas 34 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q4 9:12UCFDylan Wade 2 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–14
- Q3 14:39UCFDylan Wade 83 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)14–7
- Q2 0:50OKSTZane Flores 6 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:06OKSTGavin Freeman 5 Yd pass from Zane Flores (Logan Ward Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1468, OKST Elo 1080 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -17.9 (88% to win) — 4.9 points clear of UCF's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OKST | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.9 (#130) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#80) |
| -12 / +11 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 1.02 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →