Ohio
Mid-American· Elo 1620
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| OSU | 3 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 37 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 1977, OHIO Elo 1620) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -16.7 (89% to win) — 11.8 points of value on OHIO versus the market line of -28.5.
OSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio 9, Ohio State 37.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 67 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock PAT MISSED)
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 49 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
Julian Sayin sacked by Anas Luqman for a loss of 5 yards to the OHIO 9
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