Ohio vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsOSU
- Q4 6:36OSUJeremiah Smith 17 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)9–37
- Q4 14:14OSUCarnell Tate 49 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)9–30
- Q3 6:16OSUJeremiah Smith 47 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)9–23
- Q3 11:19OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 9–16
- Q3 14:07OHIOChase Hendricks 67 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock PAT failed)9–13
- Q2 0:24OHIOBrack Peacock 44 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 2:29OSUMax Klare 16 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–13
- Q2 9:58OSUJayden Fielding 20 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 1:54OSUJayden Fielding 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OHIO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassParker Navarro 6/13, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSieh Bangura 12 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecChase Hendricks 3 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJulian Sayin 25/32, 347 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushBo Jackson 9 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecJeremiah Smith 9 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 14:07OHIO +10%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 67 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock PAT MISSED)
- Q3 11:19OSU +8%
Jayden Fielding 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 2:29OSU +6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 16 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
- Q3 6:16OSU +6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 47 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Ohio State?
Ohio 9, Ohio State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OHIO | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | Total yards | 572 |
| 113 | Passing yards | 347 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 225 |
| 9 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 10/21 | Comp/Att | 25/32 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 27:17 | Possession | 32:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:58 OSU field goal on 4th & 2 at OHIO 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:36OSUJeremiah Smith 17 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)9–37
- Q4 14:14OSUCarnell Tate 49 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)9–30
- Q3 6:16OSUJeremiah Smith 47 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)9–23
- Q3 11:19OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 9–16
- Q3 14:07OHIOChase Hendricks 67 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock PAT failed)9–13
- Q2 0:24OHIOBrack Peacock 44 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 2:29OSUMax Klare 16 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–13
- Q2 9:58OSUJayden Fielding 20 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 1:54OSUJayden Fielding 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1977, OHIO Elo 1620 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -16.7 (86% to win) — 11.8 points clear of OHIO's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OHIO | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#66) | CORE overall | +39.2 (#1) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | +14 / -26 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 3.43 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 1.15 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →