Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NDTeam statsPITT
- Q4 0:00PITTMalachi Thomas 21 Yd pass from Eli Holstein 37–15
- Q4 9:55NDCJ Carr 5 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)37–9
- Q3 1:39NDAdon Shuler Defensive PAT Conversion30–9
- Q3 1:39PITTRasheem Biles 10 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–9
- Q3 10:43NDMalachi Fields 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)28–3
- Q2 1:56NDMalachi Fields 25 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:55PITTSam Carpenter 24 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 7:59NDTae Johnson 49 Yd Interception Return (Erik Schmidt Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:16NDJeremiyah Love 56 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PITT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ND did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 7.0
- PassCJ Carr 21/32, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJeremiyah Love 23 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalachi Fields 7 REC, 99 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMason Heintschel 16/33, 126 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJuelz Goff 5 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecDesmond Reid 6 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:16ND +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 56 yards gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh?
Notre Dame 37, Pittsburgh 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| ND | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Total yards | 219 |
| 212 | Passing yards | 149 |
| 175 | Rushing yards | 70 |
| 20 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 0-13 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 19/39 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 3.8 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-84 | Penalties | 5-41 |
| 35:17 | Possession | 24:43 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:58 ND punt on 4th & 6 at PITT 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00PITTMalachi Thomas 21 Yd pass from Eli Holstein 37–15
- Q4 9:55NDCJ Carr 5 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)37–9
- Q3 1:39NDAdon Shuler Defensive PAT Conversion30–9
- Q3 1:39PITTRasheem Biles 10 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–9
- Q3 10:43NDMalachi Fields 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)28–3
- Q2 1:56NDMalachi Fields 25 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:55PITTSam Carpenter 24 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 7:59NDTae Johnson 49 Yd Interception Return (Erik Schmidt Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:16NDJeremiyah Love 56 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1668, ND Elo 2186 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT +18.3 (13% to win) — 5.8 points clear of ND's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 52–21–1 · Notre Dame has won 5 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| ND | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +38.3 (#2) | CORE overall | +16.8 (#23) |
| +20 / -18 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 3.84 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.28 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →