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Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 15, 5:00 PM
Acrisure Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 37 |
| PITT | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PITT 1668
ND 2186
Projected spread
PITT +18.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
ND
91% to win
Market spread
PITT +12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ND
5.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
9%
PITT · market 21%
Our model blends Elo ratings (PITT Elo 1668, ND Elo 2186) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT +18.3 (9% to win) — 5.8 points of value on ND versus the market line of +12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
PITT (top)ND (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PITT 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ND2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedPITT
Offense
0.36
PPA / play
0.1949%
Success rate
41%1.44
Explosiveness
1.394.79
Pts / opportunity
3.6562%
Power success
67%Defense
0.04
PPA allowed / play
0.0836%
Success rate allowed
35%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.3518%
Havoc rate
19%18%
Stuff rate
25%Key matchups · Pro
- ND rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge ND.
- PITT pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. ND pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge PITT.
- ND pass offense (0.45 PPA) vs. PITT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge ND.
Drive-by-drive
ND 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →PITT 3/11 scoring drives
PITTDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
NDMISS6 pl, 19 yds· opp 46Q1
PITTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 28Q1
NDTD1 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1
PITTTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 44Q1
PITTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 17Q1
NDPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 48Q1
PITTPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 8Q1
NDINT4 pl, 30 yds· own 20Q1
PITTFG4 pl, 6 yds· opp 12Q2
NDDOWNS14 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q2
PITTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 1Q2
NDTD6 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2
PITTMISS8 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q2
NDEND1 pl, -8 yds· own 35Q2
NDTD9 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q3
PITTDOWNS14 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q3
NDTD5 pl, 14 yds· own 1Q3
NDTD12 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
PITTDOWNS6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q4
NDDOWNS8 pl, 23 yds· opp 44Q4
PITTTD12 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ND up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ND went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh?
Notre Dame 37, Pittsburgh 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.