| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| USC | 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USC Elo 1897, NU Elo 1530) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -17.1 (90% to win) — 2.6 points of value on USC versus the market line of -14.5.
USC up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Northwestern 17, USC 38.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(02:47) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush middle for 55 yards gain to the NU25 (#2 F.Davis II), 1ST DOWN
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #6 M.Lemon caught at NU48, for 52 yards to the NU25 (#2 F.Davis II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(14:24) #80 S.Huard pass complete short left to #16 T.Hines caught at NU45, for 10 yards to the NU44, out of bounds at NU44, 1ST DOWN
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
