Northwestern vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsUSC
- Q4 4:40USCRyon Sayeri 22 Yd Field Goal 17–38
- Q4 11:14USCMakai Lemon 4 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)17–35
- Q3 0:17NUJack Olsen 33 Yd Field Goal 17–28
- Q3 7:56USCJa'Kobi Lane 10 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:24USCKi. Miller run for 12 yds, for a TD (R. Sayeri KICK)14–21
- Q2 7:26NUCaleb Komolafe 2 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:27USCJayden Maiava 6 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:45NUGriffin Wilde 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:46USCMakai Lemon 7 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassPreston Stone 20/30, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCaleb Komolafe 17 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaleb Komolafe 5 REC, 40 YDS
- PassJayden Maiava 24/33, 299 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKing Miller 15 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMakai Lemon 11 REC, 161 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:56USC +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #8 J.Lane caught at NU00, for 10 yards to the NU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. USC?
Northwestern 17, USC 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| NU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 482 |
| 150 | Passing yards | 309 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 13 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 25/34 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-26 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 27:24 | Possession | 32:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:32 NU punt on 4th & 1 at NU 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:40USCRyon Sayeri 22 Yd Field Goal 17–38
- Q4 11:14USCMakai Lemon 4 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)17–35
- Q3 0:17NUJack Olsen 33 Yd Field Goal 17–28
- Q3 7:56USCJa'Kobi Lane 10 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:24USCKi. Miller run for 12 yds, for a TD (R. Sayeri KICK)14–21
- Q2 7:26NUCaleb Komolafe 2 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:27USCJayden Maiava 6 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:45NUGriffin Wilde 4 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:46USCMakai Lemon 7 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1897, NU Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -17.1 (87% to win) — 2.6 points clear of USC's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#67) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#10) |
| -0 / +1 | offense / defense | +18 / -4 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 3.53 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.14 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →