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Northwestern vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Nov 30, 12:30 AM
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| ILL | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ILL 1576
NU 1531
Projected spread
ILL -4.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
ILL
62% to win
Market spread
ILL -7
sportsbook line
Model edge
NU
2.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
62%
ILL · market 70%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ILL Elo 1576, NU Elo 1531) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL -4.2 (62% to win) — 2.8 points of value on NU versus the market line of -7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ILL (top)NU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ILL 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
NU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedILL
Offense
0.15
PPA / play
0.2143%
Success rate
48%1.18
Explosiveness
1.173.21
Pts / opportunity
4.2176%
Power success
73%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.2045%
Success rate allowed
45%1.15
Explosiveness allowed
1.1915%
Havoc rate
15%15%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- ILL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. NU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge ILL.
- NU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge ILL.
- ILL rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
Drive-by-drive
NU 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ILL 4/11 scoring drives
ILLDOWNS9 pl, 65 yds· own 18Q1
NUFG15 pl, 63 yds· own 17Q1
ILLTD7 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
NUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
ILLPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 28Q2
NUINT4 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q2
ILLTD4 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q2
NUEND1 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2
NUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
ILLFG9 pl, 41 yds· own 30Q3
NUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q3
ILLPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 43Q3
NUFUM12 pl, 70 yds· own 20Q3
ILLFUM3 pl, -9 yds· own 10Q4
NUFG4 pl, -7 yds· opp 1Q4
ILLPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4
NUDOWNS4 pl, -9 yds· own 26Q4
ILLFG4 pl, 9 yds· opp 17Q4
NUINT4 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q4
ILLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 48Q4
NUDOWNS8 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q4
ILLUncateg1 pl, -2 yds· own 44Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ILL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ILL went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Illinois?
Northwestern 13, Illinois 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ILL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.