Northwestern vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsILL
- Q4 3:00ILLDavid Olano 27 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q4 7:46NUJack Olsen 26 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q3 7:23ILLDavid Olano 47 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:30ILLKaden Feagin 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:50NUHayden Eligon II 13 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:27ILLCa'Lil Valentine 6 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)3–7
- Q1 0:16NUJack Olsen 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassPreston Stone 19/36, 163 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushRobby Preckel 22 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecHayden Eligon II 8 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLuke Altmyer 10/15, 136 YDS
- RushCa'Lil Valentine 14 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCollin Dixon 2 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:00ILL +26%
#24 D.Olano field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q2 0:30ILL +23%
#3 K.Feagin rush right for 1 yard gain to the NW00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:50NU +22%
Shotgun #8 P.Stone pass complete short left to #80 H.Eligon II caught at ILL00, for 13 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:17ILL +20%
#80 H.Beatty pass complete short left to #85 T.Arkin caught at NW15, for 28 yards to the NW06 (#18 G.Wallace), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 6:12ILL +17%
#40 K.Crimmins punt 42 yards to the NW26 fair catch by #17 G.Wilde at NW26
- Q4 6:05NU +15%
Shotgun #41 R.Preckel rush left for 5 yards gain to the NW31 (#7 M.Bailey), out of bounds
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Illinois?
Northwestern 13, Illinois 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
| NU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 284 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 164 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 120 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 11/16 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 5-44 |
| 30:34 | Possession | 29:26 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:34 ILL go for it on 4th & 5 at NU 17. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.53 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:00ILLDavid Olano 27 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q4 7:46NUJack Olsen 26 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q3 7:23ILLDavid Olano 47 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:30ILLKaden Feagin 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:50NUHayden Eligon II 13 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Jack Olsen Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:27ILLCa'Lil Valentine 6 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)3–7
- Q1 0:16NUJack Olsen 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1576, NU Elo 1531 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL -4.2 (62% to win) — 2.8 points clear of NU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIllinois leads 59–55–5 · Illinois has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| NU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#67) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#36) |
| -0 / +1 | offense / defense | +10 / -1 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →