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North Texas vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Dec 6, 1:00 AM
Yulman Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 7 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 21 |
| TULN | 7 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TULN 1587
UNT 1756
Projected spread
TULN +4.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNT
63% to win
Market spread
TULN +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UNT
2.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
37%
TULN · market 46%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1587, UNT Elo 1756) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN +4.4 (37% to win) — 2.9 points of value on UNT versus the market line of +1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TULN (top)UNT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TULN 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UNT2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTULN
Offense
0.36
PPA / play
0.2251%
Success rate
46%1.33
Explosiveness
1.194.98
Pts / opportunity
3.8873%
Power success
78%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.1544%
Success rate allowed
45%1.22
Explosiveness allowed
1.1714%
Havoc rate
17%14%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- UNT rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. TULN rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge UNT.
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. TULN pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge UNT.
- TULN pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. UNT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge TULN.
Drive-by-drive
UNT 4/9 scoring drives← own end zone →TULN 5/10 scoring drives
UNTTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TULNTD16 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
UNTFUM8 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
TULNTD2 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q2
UNTPUNT3 pl, -17 yds· own 34Q2
TULNFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 42Q2
UNTPUNT7 pl, 21 yds· own 13Q2
TULNPUNT7 pl, 40 yds· own 16Q2
TULNTD6 pl, 13 yds· opp 13Q2
TULNMISS13 pl, 55 yds· own 13Q3
UNTTD4 pl, 1 yds· own 32Q3
UNTINT10 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q3
TULNPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 1Q3
UNTTD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3
TULNPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 36Q3
UNTTD8 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q4
TULNFG13 pl, 66 yds· own 22Q4
UNTINT9 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q4
TULNEND2 pl, -3 yds· own 20Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TULN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
TULN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Tulane?
North Texas 21, Tulane 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had UNT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.