North Texas vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsTULN
- Q4 2:51TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q4 9:26UNTAshton Gray 9 Yd Run (Ashton Gray Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–31
- Q3 0:16UNTMiles Coleman 59 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–31
- Q3 7:32TULNChris Rodgers 35 Yd Interception Return (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:00TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–24
- Q2 5:46TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 12:29TULNJamauri McClure 7 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:30TULNJake Retzlaff 2 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:32UNTTre Williams III 10 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TULN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 4.4
- PassDrew Mestemaker 21/34, 294 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushAshton Gray 8 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMiles Coleman 7 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJake Retzlaff 13/22, 145 YDS
- RushJamauri McClure 22 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGarrett Mmahat 3 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:37TULN +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #24 C.Hawkins caught at TLN36, for 11 yards to the TLN29 fumbled by #24 C.Hawkins at TLN26 forced by #…
- Q1 0:30TULN +18%
#12 J.Retzlaff rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:32UNT +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #6 T.Williams III caught at TLN02, for 10 yards to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:00TULN +14%
Jake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)
- Q2 5:46TULN +14%
#91 P.Durkin field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD
- Q4 2:51TULN +10%
#91 P.Durkin field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Tulane?
North Texas 21, Tulane 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 415 | Total yards | 344 |
| 294 | Passing yards | 145 |
| 121 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 25 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 21/34 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 5-48 |
| 24:52 | Possession | 35:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:47 TULN punt on 4th & 3 at UNT 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:51TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 21–34
- Q4 9:26UNTAshton Gray 9 Yd Run (Ashton Gray Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–31
- Q3 0:16UNTMiles Coleman 59 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–31
- Q3 7:32TULNChris Rodgers 35 Yd Interception Return (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:00TULNJake Retzlaff 1 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–24
- Q2 5:46TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 12:29TULNJamauri McClure 7 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:30TULNJake Retzlaff 2 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:32UNTTre Williams III 10 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1587, UNT Elo 1756 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN +4.4 (40% to win) — 2.9 points clear of UNT's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNT | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.9 (#34) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#47) |
| +18 / +6 | offense / defense | +5 / -2 |
| 4.00 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →