North Texas vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 0:01SDSUK. Crum run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)49–47
- Q4 4:39SDSUC. Washington run for 11 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)49–40
- Q4 6:08UNTD. Mestemaker pass to C. Dorner for 31 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)49–34
- Q4 10:41SDSUSa. Evans punt for 42 yds, N. Acevedo returns for 63 yds for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)42–34
- Q4 12:03SDSUK. Crum run for 11 yds, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)42–27
- Q3 0:03UNTD. Mestemaker pass to C. Dorner for 1 yd, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)42–20
- Q3 6:34UNTC. Hawkins run for 3 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)35–20
- Q2 4:36SDSUK. Crum pass to J. Ford for 3 yds, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)28–20
- Q2 13:28UNTA. Gray run for 51 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)28–13
- Q2 14:49SDSUB. Emanuel Jr. run for 72 yds, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)21–13
- Q1 0:10UNTD. Mestemaker pass to C. Hawkins for 23 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)21–6
- Q1 3:18UNTA. Gray run for 17 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)14–6
- Q1 6:57SDSUBert Emanuel Jr. 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–6
- Q1 11:32UNTCaleb Hawkins 9 Yd Run (Miguel Arenas Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UNT ahead, below = SDSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassDrew Mestemaker 27/47, 250 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushCaleb Hawkins 31 CAR, 198 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCameron Dorner 6 REC, 66 YDS, 2 TD
- PassKyle Crum 14/29, 169 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushBert Emanuel Jr. 11 CAR, 170 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNathan Acevedo 4 REC, 61 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. San Diego State?
North Texas 49, San Diego State 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| UNT | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 618 | Total yards | 532 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 368 | Rushing yards | 326 |
| 28 | First downs | 25 |
| 9-20 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 5-7 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 27/49 | Comp/Att | 18/36 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 7.5 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-90 | Penalties | 8-77 |
| 32:32 | Possession | 27:28 |
- Q4 0:01SDSUK. Crum run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)49–47
- Q4 4:39SDSUC. Washington run for 11 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)49–40
- Q4 6:08UNTD. Mestemaker pass to C. Dorner for 31 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)49–34
- Q4 10:41SDSUSa. Evans punt for 42 yds, N. Acevedo returns for 63 yds for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)42–34
- Q4 12:03SDSUK. Crum run for 11 yds, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)42–27
- Q3 0:03UNTD. Mestemaker pass to C. Dorner for 1 yd, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)42–20
- Q3 6:34UNTC. Hawkins run for 3 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)35–20
- Q2 4:36SDSUK. Crum pass to J. Ford for 3 yds, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)28–20
- Q2 13:28UNTA. Gray run for 51 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)28–13
- Q2 14:49SDSUB. Emanuel Jr. run for 72 yds, for a TD (G. Plascencia KICK)21–13
- Q1 0:10UNTD. Mestemaker pass to C. Hawkins for 23 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)21–6
- Q1 3:18UNTA. Gray run for 17 yds, for a TD (M. Arenas KICK)14–6
- Q1 6:57SDSUBert Emanuel Jr. 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–6
- Q1 11:32UNTCaleb Hawkins 9 Yd Run (Miguel Arenas Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1521, UNT Elo 1716 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SDSU +7.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 6–2 · 25% have been one-possession games
| UNT | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.9 (#34) | CORE overall | +11.6 (#35) |
| +18 / +6 | offense / defense | -2 / -14 |
| 4.00 | points / drive | 1.88 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 1.14 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →