| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 21 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
| SDSU | 6 | 14 | 0 | 27 | 47 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1521, UNT Elo 1716) on a neutral field. That projects SDSU +7.8 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = UNT ahead, below = SDSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge UNT.
- UNT rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge UNT.
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UNT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge UNT.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UNT up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. San Diego State?
North Texas 49, San Diego State 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.