Nicholls vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Nicholls

0020

Troy

▸0038

Final

Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

	1	2	3	4	T
NICH	0	10	7	3	20
TROY	0	7	3	28	38

NICHTeam statsTROY

249Total yards416

184Pass144

65Rush272

16First downs23

4-113rd down9-15

1Turnovers0

29:13Possession30:47

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:56TROYEthan Conner 5 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–38
• Q4 6:08TROYTae Meadows 47 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–31
• Q4 8:13TROYTray Taylor 28 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–24
• Q4 10:41NICHGabriel Showalter 22 Yd Field Goal 20–17
• Q4 14:09TROYGoose Crowder 16 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–17
• Q3 5:36TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 24 Yd Field Goal 17–10
• Q3 12:03NICHMiequle Brock Jr. 58 Yd pass from Deuce Hogan (Gabriel Showalter Kick)17–7
• Q2 1:01TROYRoman Mothershed 27 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)10–7
• Q2 2:14NICHMiequle Brock Jr. 3 Yd Run (Gabriel Showalter Kick)10–0
• Q2 10:42NICHGabriel Showalter 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

TROY −18

Against the number

Push

line TROY −18

What the numbers say

• NICH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 38% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TROY 100%50%NICH 100%

Kickoff141 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TROY (top)NICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TROY 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

TROY −18

Closing total

47.0

Model line

—

Actual result

NICH 20 – 38 TROY

Leaders

Nicholls

• PassDeuce Hogan 21/27, 184 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushTamaj Hoffman 9 CAR, 52 YDS
• RecMiequle Brock 6 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD

Troy

• PassGoose Crowder 14/24, 144 YDS, 3 TD
• RushTae Meadows 23 CAR, 186 YDS, 1 TD
• RecRoman Mothershed 2 REC, 32 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.48

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NICH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

NICH went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24WGeorgia State vs Rhode Island42-35WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24WEastern Michigan vs Howard33-23LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17

Fourth downs

13 calls

TROY gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.NICH 4/5 · TROY 5/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Nicholls vs. Troy?

Nicholls 20, Troy 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NICH

TROY

38%

Success rate

49%

0.08

EPA / pass

0.38

0.02

EPA / rush

0.31

39%

Early-down success

46%

41%

Pass success

52%

33%

Rush success

48%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

60%

Pass rate

36%

7.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

NICH

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

TROY

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NICH		TROY
249	Total yards	416
184	Passing yards	144
65	Rushing yards	272
16	First downs	23
4-11	3rd down	9-15
0-1	4th down	1-2
21/27	Comp/Att	14/24
6.8	Yards per pass	6.0
2.6	Yards per rush	6.2
1	Turnovers	0
6-45	Penalties	8-100
29:13	Possession	30:47

Fourth downs

13 calls

NICH

4/5 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

TROY

5/6 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 5:36 TROY field goal on 4th & 4 at NICH 6. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.08 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NICH 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →TROY 6/11 scoring drives

TROYPUNT8 pl, 20 yds· own 21Q1

NICHPUNT9 pl, 27 yds· own 2Q1

TROYPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 16Q1

NICHPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 30Q1

TROYPUNT5 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

NICHFG5 pl, 23 yds· own 49Q2

TROYDOWNS9 pl, 34 yds· own 31Q2

NICHTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

TROYTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2

NICHEND2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

NICHTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

TROYFG11 pl, 66 yds· own 28Q3

NICHPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

TROYTD10 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q3

NICHFG7 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q4

TROYTD7 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4

NICHINT4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q4

TROYTD1 pl, 47 yds· opp 47Q4

NICHPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4

TROYTD5 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q4

NICHDOWNS5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q4

TROYEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 47Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:56TROYEthan Conner 5 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–38
• Q4 6:08TROYTae Meadows 47 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–31
• Q4 8:13TROYTray Taylor 28 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–24
• Q4 10:41NICHGabriel Showalter 22 Yd Field Goal 20–17
• Q4 14:09TROYGoose Crowder 16 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–17
• Q3 5:36TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 24 Yd Field Goal 17–10
• Q3 12:03NICHMiequle Brock Jr. 58 Yd pass from Deuce Hogan (Gabriel Showalter Kick)17–7
• Q2 1:01TROYRoman Mothershed 27 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)10–7
• Q2 2:14NICHMiequle Brock Jr. 3 Yd Run (Gabriel Showalter Kick)10–0
• Q2 10:42NICHGabriel Showalter 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →