| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 7 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 40 |
| UNLV | 0 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNLV Elo 1567, UNM Elo 1442) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -7.4 (71% to win) — 3.4 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of -4.
UNM up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico 40, UNLV 35.
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UNLV pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Keagan Johnson 80 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
Damon Bankston 84 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
End of 1st quarter.
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