New Mexico vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 2:54UNMD.J. McKinney 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–35
- Q4 6:35UNLVNick Elksnis 14 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)34–35
- Q3 8:10UNLVA. Colandrea pass to V. Gumms for 27 yds, for a TD (R. Villela KICK)34–28
- Q3 10:46UNMLuke Drzewiecki 40 Yd Field Goal 34–21
- Q2 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 46 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q2 1:49UNMKeagan Johnson 80 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)28–21
- Q2 2:20UNLVQuandarius Keyes 25 Yd Interception Return (Ramon Villela Kick)21–21
- Q2 3:14UNLVKeyvone Lee 5 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:55UNLVDaejon Reynolds 7 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:43UNMDamon Bankston 84 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:52UNMSimon Mapa 12 Yd pass from James Laubstein (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:09UNMDamon Bankston 30 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNLV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 7.7
- PassJack Layne 17/22, 342 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJames Laubstein 8 CAR, 99 YDS
- RecKeagan Johnson 6 REC, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAnthony Colandrea 36/46, 382 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAnthony Colandrea 8 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecDaejon Reynolds 5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:20UNLV +55%
#96 D.Hughes punt 48 yards to the UNLV20 muffed by #4 D.Irvin Jr. at UNLV20 recovered by UNLV #4 D.Irvin Jr. at UNLV20 #4 D.Irvin Jr. return for loss of 3 yards to the…
- Q4 6:35UNLV +48%
A. Colandrea pass to N. Elksnis for 14 yds, for a TD (R. Villela KICK)
- Q4 2:54UNM +45%
Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #2 J.Layne pass attempt failed
- Q2 1:49UNM +24%
Keagan Johnson 80 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
- Q3 8:41UNLV +23%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNM42, out of bounds at UNM42, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 6:24UNM +20%
Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 9 yards gain to the UNM34 (#0 L.Welch; #94 L.Conti)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. UNLV?
New Mexico 40, UNLV 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 532 | Total yards | 470 |
| 401 | Passing yards | 382 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 88 |
| 16 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 20/26 | Comp/Att | 36/47 |
| 15.4 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-75 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 27:30 | Possession | 32:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:35 UNM go for it on 4th & 8 at UNM 27. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:54UNMD.J. McKinney 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–35
- Q4 6:35UNLVNick Elksnis 14 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)34–35
- Q3 8:10UNLVA. Colandrea pass to V. Gumms for 27 yds, for a TD (R. Villela KICK)34–28
- Q3 10:46UNMLuke Drzewiecki 40 Yd Field Goal 34–21
- Q2 0:00UNMLuke Drzewiecki 46 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q2 1:49UNMKeagan Johnson 80 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)28–21
- Q2 2:20UNLVQuandarius Keyes 25 Yd Interception Return (Ramon Villela Kick)21–21
- Q2 3:14UNLVKeyvone Lee 5 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:55UNLVDaejon Reynolds 7 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:43UNMDamon Bankston 84 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:52UNMSimon Mapa 12 Yd pass from James Laubstein (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:09UNMDamon Bankston 30 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1567, UNM Elo 1442 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -7.4 (70% to win) — 3.4 points clear of UNLV's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUNLV leads 15–13 · 46% have been one-possession games
| UNM | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#63) | CORE overall | -1.9 (#69) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +10 / +12 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 2.90 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →