| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| MICH | 14 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MICH Elo 1772, UNM Elo 1331) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -20 (93% to win) — 15.0 points of value on UNM versus the market line of -35.
MICH up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico 17, Michigan 34.
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Justice Haynes run for 56 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
Jack Layne pass intercepted
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 39 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST down
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