New Mexico vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsMICH
- Q4 10:14MICHJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–34
- Q3 1:40UNMDorian Thomas 3 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)17–27
- Q3 10:19MICHDominic Zvada 39 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 0:25MICHMarlin Klein 15 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–24
- Q2 1:56UNMLuke Drzewiecki 44 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 2:23UNMDorian Thomas 9 Yd pass from D.J. McKinney (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–17
- Q2 8:21MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:26MICHJustice Haynes 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:57MICHJustice Haynes 56 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJack Layne 31/47, 208 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushScottre Humphrey 10 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecDorian Thomas 10 REC, 71 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBryce Underwood 21/31, 251 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJustice Haynes 16 CAR, 159 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMarlin Klein 6 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Michigan?
New Mexico 17, Michigan 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| UNM | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | Total yards | 452 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 201 |
| 21 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 32/48 | Comp/Att | 21/31 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 8-65 |
| 33:02 | Possession | 26:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:19 MICH punt on 4th & 1 at MICH 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:14MICHJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–34
- Q3 1:40UNMDorian Thomas 3 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)17–27
- Q3 10:19MICHDominic Zvada 39 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 0:25MICHMarlin Klein 15 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–24
- Q2 1:56UNMLuke Drzewiecki 44 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 2:23UNMDorian Thomas 9 Yd pass from D.J. McKinney (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)7–17
- Q2 8:21MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:26MICHJustice Haynes 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:57MICHJustice Haynes 56 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1772, UNM Elo 1331 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -20 (90% to win) — 15.0 points clear of UNM's market line of -35. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNM | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#63) | CORE overall | +17.4 (#22) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →