Scheumann StadiumClosing line: BALL -3 · BALL covered
Sat, Sep 13, 6:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW | 14 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 29 |
| BALL | 14 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 34 |
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
BALL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Hampshire 29, Ball State 34.
No — the model picked NEW , which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had NEW pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Brendan Tighe 30 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nick Reed Kick)
Qua Ashley run for 72 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
Kiael Kelly run for 40 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
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