New Hampshire vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

New Hampshire

0029

Ball State0-2

▸0034

Final

Scheumann Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NEW	14	7	3	5	29
BALL	14	14	6	0	34

NEW Team statsBALL

391Total yards413

259Pass105

132Rush308

22First downs21

8-173rd down7-10

0Turnovers2

38:05Possession21:55

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:16NEW Nick Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 29–34
• Q4 4:16NEW Nick Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 29–34
• Q4 8:07NEW Team Safety 26–34
• Q4 8:10NEW Team Safety 26–34
• Q3 3:46NEW Nick Reed 52 Yd Field Goal 24–34
• Q3 3:46NEW Nick Reed 52 Yd Field Goal 24–34
• Q3 9:56BALLQua Ashley 27 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–34
• Q3 9:56BALLQua Ashley 27 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–34
• Q2 0:20BALLKameron Anthony 10 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)21–28
• Q2 0:20BALLKameron Anthony 10 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)21–28
• Q2 1:47NEW Matt Vezza 2 Yd Run (Nick Reed Kick)21–21
• Q2 1:47NEW Matt Vezza 2 Yd Run (Nick Reed Kick)21–21
• Q2 7:12BALLQua Ashley 72 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–21
• Q2 7:12BALLQua Ashley 72 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–21
• Q1 4:29BALLQua Ashley 43 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–14
• Q1 4:29BALLQua Ashley 43 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–14
• Q1 5:22NEW Chase Wilson 13 Yd pass from Matt Vezza (Nick Reed Kick)14–7
• Q1 5:22NEW Chase Wilson 13 Yd pass from Matt Vezza (Nick Reed Kick)14–7
• Q1 10:48BALLKiael Kelly 40 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:48BALLKiael Kelly 40 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)7–7
• Q1 13:53NEW Brendan Tighe 30 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nick Reed Kick)7–0
• Q1 13:53NEW Brendan Tighe 30 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nick Reed Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

BALL −3

Against the number

BALL covered

line BALL −3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

BALL 100%50%NEW 100%

Kickoff150 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BALL (top)NEW (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BALL 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

BALL −3

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NEW 29 – 34 BALL

Leaders

New Hampshire

• PassMatt Vezza 25/44, 259 YDS, 1 TD
• RushMatt Vezza 16 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCaleb Burke 7 REC, 89 YDS

Ball State

• PassKiael Kelly 9/15, 105 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushQua Ashley 12 CAR, 154 YDS, 2 TD
• RecQua Ashley 2 REC, 33 YDS, 1 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BALL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

BALL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37WHouston vs UTSA17-14WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

Fourth downs

12 calls

NEW gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.NEW 6/7 · BALL 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of New Hampshire vs. Ball State?

New Hampshire 29, Ball State 34.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BALL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NEW

BALL

43%

Success rate

54%

0.08

EPA / pass

0.47

0.28

EPA / rush

0.47

42%

Early-down success

51%

40%

Pass success

56%

48%

Rush success

53%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

63%

Pass rate

33%

8.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.7

NEW

8.2 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

BALL

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

54 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NEW		BALL
391	Total yards	413
259	Passing yards	105
132	Rushing yards	308
22	First downs	21
8-17	3rd down	7-10
1-2	4th down	0-0
25/45	Comp/Att	9/15
5.8	Yards per pass	7.0
3.9	Yards per rush	8.6
0	Turnovers	2
6-62	Penalties	6-56
38:05	Possession	21:55

Fourth downs

12 calls

NEW

6/7 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

BALL

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 13:22 NEW punt on 4th & 12 at BALL 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NEW 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BALL 7/10 scoring drives

BALLTD3 pl, 5 yds· own 36Q1

BALLTD6 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1

NEW TD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

BALLTD2 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q1

NEW PUNT10 pl, 41 yds· own 17Q1

BALLINT4 pl, 10 yds· own 10Q2

NEW PUNT5 pl, 4 yds· opp 48Q2

NEW MISS4 pl, 0 yds· opp 7Q2

BALLTD2 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

NEW TD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

BALLTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

NEW MISS3 pl, 15 yds· opp 49Q2

NEW PUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 29Q3

BALLTD8 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

NEW FG13 pl, 59 yds· own 7Q3

BALLPUNT12 pl, 25 yds· own 11Q3

NEW PUNT6 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q4

BALLSAF1 pl, -5 yds· own 5Q4

NEW FG7 pl, 49 yds· own 40Q4

BALLPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 35Q4

NEW DOWNS9 pl, 33 yds· own 10Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:16NEW Nick Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 29–34
• Q4 4:16NEW Nick Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 29–34
• Q4 8:07NEW Team Safety 26–34
• Q4 8:10NEW Team Safety 26–34
• Q3 3:46NEW Nick Reed 52 Yd Field Goal 24–34
• Q3 3:46NEW Nick Reed 52 Yd Field Goal 24–34
• Q3 9:56BALLQua Ashley 27 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–34
• Q3 9:56BALLQua Ashley 27 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–34
• Q2 0:20BALLKameron Anthony 10 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)21–28
• Q2 0:20BALLKameron Anthony 10 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)21–28
• Q2 1:47NEW Matt Vezza 2 Yd Run (Nick Reed Kick)21–21
• Q2 1:47NEW Matt Vezza 2 Yd Run (Nick Reed Kick)21–21
• Q2 7:12BALLQua Ashley 72 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–21
• Q2 7:12BALLQua Ashley 72 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–21
• Q1 4:29BALLQua Ashley 43 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–14
• Q1 4:29BALLQua Ashley 43 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–14
• Q1 5:22NEW Chase Wilson 13 Yd pass from Matt Vezza (Nick Reed Kick)14–7
• Q1 5:22NEW Chase Wilson 13 Yd pass from Matt Vezza (Nick Reed Kick)14–7
• Q1 10:48BALLKiael Kelly 40 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)7–7
• Q1 10:48BALLKiael Kelly 40 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)7–7
• Q1 13:53NEW Brendan Tighe 30 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nick Reed Kick)7–0
• Q1 13:53NEW Brendan Tighe 30 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Nick Reed Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →