Nevada vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsWKU
- Q4 0:23WKUMatthew Henry 48 Yd Kickoff Return (John Cannon Kick)16–31
- Q4 0:29NEVJoe McFadden 22 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q4 1:49WKULa'Vell Wright 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)13–24
- Q4 11:23WKUGeorge Hart III 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)13–17
- Q3 7:28NEVJoe McFadden 43 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 11:08WKULa'Vell Wright 2 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:57NEVChubba Purdy 6 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)10–3
- Q1 2:16WKUJohn Cannon 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:17NEVJoe McFadden 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEV lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassChubba Purdy 16/30, 165 YDS, 2 INT
- RushCaleb Ramseur 9 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecJett Carpenter 6 REC, 70 YDS
- PassMaverick McIvor 22/33, 216 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGeorge Hart III 11 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Meyers 6 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEV up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:23WKU +35%
George Hart III run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 11:08WKU +26%
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q2 6:57NEV +22%
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
- Q4 5:09WKU +17%
Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tanner Vaughan) to the NEV 40 for a 1ST down
- Q3 7:28NEV +13%
Joe McFadden 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 1:44NEV +12%
Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass complete short right to Thomas,Dakota caught at WKU41, for 26 yards to the WKU29 (Lewis,Jaylen) PENALTY Nevada Holding (Cochnauer,Zach) 10 ya…
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Western Kentucky?
Nevada 16, Western Kentucky 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| NEV | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 361 |
| 165 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 22 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/33 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 8-85 |
| 32:22 | Possession | 27:44 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:41 NEV punt on 4th & 5 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:23WKUMatthew Henry 48 Yd Kickoff Return (John Cannon Kick)16–31
- Q4 0:29NEVJoe McFadden 22 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q4 1:49WKULa'Vell Wright 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)13–24
- Q4 11:23WKUGeorge Hart III 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)13–17
- Q3 7:28NEVJoe McFadden 43 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 11:08WKULa'Vell Wright 2 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:57NEVChubba Purdy 6 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)10–3
- Q1 2:16WKUJohn Cannon 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:17NEVJoe McFadden 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1390, NEV Elo 1278 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU -6.9 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NEV | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#110) | CORE overall | -6.3 (#83) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -6 / +0 |
| 1.33 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 1.79 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →