Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| WKU | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WKU 1390
NEV 1278
Projected spread
WKU -6.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
69% to win
Market spread
WKU -8
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
69%
WKU · market 75%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1390, NEV Elo 1278) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -6.9 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WKU (top)NEV (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. NEV rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge NEV.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge WKU.
Drive-by-drive
NEV 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 4/11 scoring drives
NEVPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
WKUMISS10 pl, 38 yds· own 33Q1
NEVFG8 pl, 47 yds· own 29Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NEV up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
NEV went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Western Kentucky?
Nevada 16, Western Kentucky 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.