| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| USU | 24 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 51 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USU Elo 1336, NEV Elo 1191) plus home-field advantage. That projects USU -8.2 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
USU up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nevada 14, Utah State 51.
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
End of 3rd quarter.
(07:39) No Huddle #3 J.Conover pass complete short left to #23 N.White caught at USU23, for 62 yards to the NEV11 (#18 A.Walker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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