Nevada vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsUSU
- Q4 5:13USUTanner Rinker 21 Yd Field Goal 14–51
- Q4 8:11NEVJett Carpenter 34 Yd pass from Chubba Purdy (Joe McFadden Kick)14–48
- Q3 4:18NEVCaleb Ramseur 41 Yd pass from Chubba Purdy (Joe McFadden Kick)7–48
- Q3 7:45USUBrady Boyd 21 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–48
- Q2 0:07USUMiles Davis 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–41
- Q2 7:54USUAnthony Garcia 15 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–34
- Q2 11:09USUTanner Rinker 44 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q1 1:46USUBrevin Hamblin 38 Yd Interception Return (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:39USUTanner Rinker 32 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 8:21USUMiles Davis 3 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:19USUBrady Boyd 53 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChubba Purdy 3/7, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChubba Purdy 10 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecJett Carpenter 4 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryson Barnes 20/27, 288 YDS, 3 TD
- RushBryson Barnes 9 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecBrady Boyd 5 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Utah State?
Nevada 14, Utah State 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
| NEV | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 242 | Total yards | 522 |
| 122 | Passing yards | 377 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 11 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/24 | Comp/Att | 24/35 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-72 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 27:38 | Possession | 32:22 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:13 USU field goal on 4th & 2 at NEV 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:13USUTanner Rinker 21 Yd Field Goal 14–51
- Q4 8:11NEVJett Carpenter 34 Yd pass from Chubba Purdy (Joe McFadden Kick)14–48
- Q3 4:18NEVCaleb Ramseur 41 Yd pass from Chubba Purdy (Joe McFadden Kick)7–48
- Q3 7:45USUBrady Boyd 21 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–48
- Q2 0:07USUMiles Davis 1 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–41
- Q2 7:54USUAnthony Garcia 15 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–34
- Q2 11:09USUTanner Rinker 44 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q1 1:46USUBrevin Hamblin 38 Yd Interception Return (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:39USUTanner Rinker 32 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 8:21USUMiles Davis 3 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:19USUBrady Boyd 53 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1336, NEV Elo 1191 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNevada leads 18–9 · Utah State has won 2 straight · 52% have been one-possession games
| NEV | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#110) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#77) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 1.33 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →