Nebraska
6-3·Big Ten· Elo 1655
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| UCLA | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCLA Elo 1374, NEB Elo 1655) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +8.8 (26% to win) — 10.8 points of value on NEB versus the market line of -2.
NEB up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nebraska 28, UCLA 21.
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NEB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:07) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short left to #6 A.Woods caught at NEB50, for 45 yards to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:58, 1ST DOWN #94 M.Bhaghani kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Peterman, LS: #50 S.Abdul-Wahab)
(11:10) Shotgun #14 T.Lateef pass complete short left to #21 E.Johnson caught at NEB41, for 56 yards to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:01, 1ST DOWN #91 K.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #46 K.Gallic)
End of 2nd quarter.
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →