Nebraska vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 4:54UCLAAnthony Frias II 9 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)28–21
- Q3 9:58UCLAAnthony Woods 45 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:44NEBEmmett Johnson 40 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:47NEBEmmett Johnson 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:01NEBEmmett Johnson 56 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:14UCLAJalen Berger 1 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:00NEBJacory Barney Jr. 2 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTJ Lateef 13/15, 205 YDS, 3 TD
- RushEmmett Johnson 28 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEmmett Johnson 3 REC, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNico Iamaleava 17/25, 191 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNico Iamaleava 15 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecRico Flores Jr. 6 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEB up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:14UCLA +16%
Shotgun #0 J.Berger rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:01NEB +16%
Shotgun #14 T.Lateef pass complete short left to #21 E.Johnson caught at NEB41, for 56 yards to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 8:00NEB +14%
Shotgun #14 T.Lateef pass complete short right to #2 J.Barney Jr. caught at UCLA00, for 2 yards to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:47NEB +10%
#21 E.Johnson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 1:57NEB +8%
#21 E.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCLA32 (#99 K.Williams), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:54UCLA +8%
Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short right to #22 A.Frias II caught at NEB09, for 9 yards to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. UCLA?
Nebraska 28, UCLA 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| NEB | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 348 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-8 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/15 | Comp/Att | 17/27 |
| 13.7 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-25 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 30:00 | Possession | 30:00 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:33 NEB punt on 4th & 6 at UCLA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:54UCLAAnthony Frias II 9 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)28–21
- Q3 9:58UCLAAnthony Woods 45 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:44NEBEmmett Johnson 40 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:47NEBEmmett Johnson 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:01NEBEmmett Johnson 56 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:14UCLAJalen Berger 1 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:00NEBJacory Barney Jr. 2 Yd pass from TJ Lateef (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1374, NEB Elo 1655 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +8.8 (29% to win) — 10.8 points clear of NEB's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNebraska leads 8–7 · 40% have been one-possession games
| NEB | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#68) | CORE overall | -6.4 (#84) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | -2 / +4 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 1.90 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 3.43 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →