Nebraska vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsMD
- Q4 1:08NEBDane Key 3 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)34–31
- Q4 7:47NEBKyle Cunanan 27 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q3 6:40MDDontay Joyner 67 Yd Interception Return (Sean O'Haire Kick)24–31
- Q3 9:58MDDeJuan Williams 1 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)24–24
- Q2 0:24MDSean O'Haire 37 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 5:37NEBNyziah Hunter 12 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)24–14
- Q2 7:27NEBLuke Lindenmeyer 7 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:25MDLeon Haughton Jr. 21 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:32MDNolan Ray 28 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:55NEBKyle Cunanan 43 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:15NEBNyziah Hunter 64 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDylan Raiola 20/29, 260 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
- RushEmmett Johnson 21 CAR, 176 YDS
- RecNyziah Hunter 5 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMalik Washington 27/37, 249 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNolan Ray 11 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShaleak Knotts 5 REC, 62 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:30MD +37%
Bryce McFerson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Bryson Webber at the NEB 39
- Q3 6:40MD +28%
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Dontay Joyner return for 67 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q4 3:42MD +27%
Bryce McFerson punt for 39 yds, Jacory Barney Jr. returns for 5 yds to the NEB 19
- Q3 9:58MD +25%
DeJuan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
- Q4 3:27NEB +22%
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Luke Lindenmeyer for 23 yds to the NEB 42 for a 1ST down
- Q2 8:25MD +22%
Malik Washington pass complete to Leon Haughton Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. Maryland?
Nebraska 34, Maryland 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| NEB | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 453 | Total yards | 365 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 249 |
| 193 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-7 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 27/37 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-49 | Penalties | 8-86 |
| 28:33 | Possession | 31:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:26 MD punt on 4th & 1 at MD 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:08NEBDane Key 3 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)34–31
- Q4 7:47NEBKyle Cunanan 27 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q3 6:40MDDontay Joyner 67 Yd Interception Return (Sean O'Haire Kick)24–31
- Q3 9:58MDDeJuan Williams 1 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)24–24
- Q2 0:24MDSean O'Haire 37 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 5:37NEBNyziah Hunter 12 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)24–14
- Q2 7:27NEBLuke Lindenmeyer 7 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:25MDLeon Haughton Jr. 21 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:32MDNolan Ray 28 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:55NEBKyle Cunanan 43 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:15NEBNyziah Hunter 64 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1573, NEB Elo 1702 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD +2.8 (44% to win) — 4.2 points clear of MD's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NEB | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#68) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#75) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →