| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 7 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 34 |
| MD | 0 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MD Elo 1573, NEB Elo 1702) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD +2.8 (42% to win) — 4.2 points of value on MD versus the market line of +7.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = NEB ahead, below = MD ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
MD up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Nebraska 34, Maryland 31.
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NEB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dylan Raiola pass intercepted Dontay Joyner return for 67 yds for a TD (Sean O'Haire KICK)
Dylan Raiola pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 64 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
Emmett Johnson run for 50 yds to the MD 10 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
